Budget forecasting and planning: essence, methods and role in the organization of the budget process. Financial forecasting at the enterprise For what purpose are budget forecasts formed

Unlike consolidated financial planning, which is carried out, as a rule, for a longer period, budget forecasting is designed for the budget period. Budget forecasting is carried out on the basis of forecast calculations of the main budget indicators.
A budget forecast is understood as a set of probabilistic estimates of possible directions for the formation of the revenue and expenditure parts of the budget.
The purpose of budget forecasting is to develop and substantiate the optimal ways of developing the budget on the basis of statistical analysis data, current trends, specific socio-economic conditions and prospective estimates. Budget forecasting allows you to take timely effective measures in the financial and budgetary policy of the state or a particular region.
Budget forecasting is based on selected indicators, which include:
- projected total budget revenues for all sources of revenues;
- the projected total amount of expenses for all sections, subsections, groups, articles of the budget classification;
- the total volume of capital and current expenditures of the budget;
- the amount of financial assistance to the budgets of other levels of the budget system, provided in the form of grants, subventions, subsidies;
- other indicators established by legislative acts, for example, the upper limit of the state external debt, the limit of borrowing, etc.
The calculation of projected budget indicators is based on different methodological approaches than the calculation of annual budget indicators. In particular, if indicators of annual or quarterly budgets are determined on the basis of direct calculations of economic and financial parameters or on the basis of statistical data, then when calculating forecast budget indicators, such data are not available or may be in the form of statistical data for previous financial years.
When developing a budget development forecast, extrapolation methods can be used, expert assessments and mixed method.
1. The extrapolation method is based on the practice and use of data from previous periods of formation and use of budgets. However this method is used, as a rule, to forecast certain items of budget revenues and expenditures that are more or less stable.
The extrapolation method uses patterns of so-called regression lines, the reliability of which is increased by building multi-step correlation models that make predicted budget indicators dependent on several variables. Therefore, before starting work on a budget forecast, it is necessary to identify and study these variables (factors). Such variables include the availability of budgetary (federal, territorial) resources, demographic changes in the country (subject of the Russian Federation), development of economic sectors, growth or decrease in the number of federal (territorial) industries, etc. In addition, before proceeding to the budget forecasting, it is necessary to identify correlations between the volume of the federal (territorial) budget and the following two variables:
- produced national income for the previous financial year;
- produced by the gross output of industry and agriculture for the same financial year.
After that, it is necessary to establish a relationship between these indicators and income tax. This is due to the fact that budget revenues are formed primarily at the expense of national income, and the relationship between income tax and profit itself is determined by law.
In principle, the regression equation with the above two variables can be written as linear equation
where Ui - the amount of revenues of the federal (territorial) budget;
aa, a5 - coefficients of the regression line, which define its specific form, based on the initial data;
>! - Produced in the sector of the national economy, or produced national income, for opre?
divisions of which forecast calculations are used economic indicators
2. The method of expert assessments is based on assessments made and substantiated by competent specialists, experts in their branches of knowledge of the national economy, social sphere, taxation, finance, budgets, etc. The method has significant drawbacks: the fewer experts, the less accurate the result; the method contains the subjectivity of an expert's assessment (knowledge, skills, practice), which is very difficult to take into account; the accuracy of the mean value of the result depends on the number of experts,
P
(4.2)
where a is the estimate (value) of the expert, given for a certain budgetary indication;
1 = 1...P - the number of experts.
3. The mixed method combines the first two methods at the same time. The method allows to simultaneously take into account the objective trends in the development of certain areas of activity of society and the state and the opinions of experts on this issue.
When forecasting the volume of budget resources for the future, it is necessary to use in practice a deep economic and statistical analysis of the social and social trends that have developed in the state. economic development, allowing with a certain degree of probability to establish the influence of various factors and conditions.
Forecasting the development of budgets of any level is based on indicators of the growth of production infrastructure, ownership of property, tax and customs legislation, population growth and its structure, which have a direct impact on the development of branches of the federal, territorial and local economy and socio-economic development in general.
Demographic forecasting makes it possible to determine the directions for the use of budgetary funds and identify priorities in financing sectors of the social sphere and the national economy.
The functional dependence of the volume of the territorial budget on population growth can be described by both linear and parabolic dependence, in particular
where Um is the income (amount of income) of the territorial budget;
a0, ad, a - correlation coefficients, or regression lines, which determine its form based on the initial data;
I - the population of the administrative-territorial unit.
With the help of these economic and mathematical models, it is possible to calculate not only the volume of total revenues or expenditures of the territorial budget, but also expenditures for financing the national economy, socio-cultural events and other other areas of expenditure. And this is quite understandable, since the size of the expenditures of the territorial budget depends primarily on the size of the population, for which the expenditures are intended. Knowing the need for spending, it is easier to solve the problem of budget formation at the expense of own sources of budget revenues and tax revenues, which can be regulated by legislative acts in order to maintain an appropriate level of welfare for the population.
Using these methods, it is possible to predict the amount of spending in certain areas, such as education and health care. To do this, it suffices to use a multifactorial linear model described by the equation
(4.5)
where Cp is the cost of social and cultural activities in the field of education and healthcare;
a - correlation coefficient or regression line, determined by a specific species on the basis of the initial data;
A)" - the cost of education;
X2 - health care costs.
Economic and mathematical methods, combined with long-term state minimum social standards and norms, can be widely used in budget forecasting at all levels of the budget system in the future with a more complete reworking of the foundations of the theory of scientific forecasting.

Budget forecasting(budgetary forecasting) - a reasonable assumption based on real calculations about the directions of development, the possible states of its income and expenses in the future, the ways and timing of achieving these states; an integral part of the budget process, the basis of budget planning.

The forecast is based on:

scrutiny of information on the state of the budget for this moment;
determining, in accordance with the identified patterns, different options for achieving the expected budget indicators;
finding as a result of the analysis the best option development of budgetary relations.

Budget forecasting directs the authorities to find the optimal solution to problems, choosing the best possible option. In the process of budget forecasting, various options for the state budget policy, different concepts of budget development are considered, taking into account a variety of economic and social, objective and subjective factors operating at the state and local levels, etc. At the same time, the continuity of budget forecasting determines the systematic refinement of budget indicators as new data are generated.

To make forecasts, two approaches are used: genetic and normative-target. At genetic approach forecasting is carried out from the present to the future on the basis of establishing cause-and-effect relationships; at normative target - the future goal and guidelines for moving towards it according to the standards are determined, possible events and measures to be taken to achieve the desired result in the long term.

The basis for budget forecasting are:

forecasts of the socio-economic development of the country, its regions, municipalities for the corresponding period of time;
statistical information on the main macroeconomic indicators (volume and dynamics of production;; volumes of production and sales of products (services); the size of investments in fixed assets for all sources of financing, including budget ones; the size of the wage fund; volumes and growth of profits);
forecasts for the development of the state and municipal sectors of the economy;
the largest of the planned stabilization (anti-crisis, etc.) measures;
priorities of socio-economic policy;
estimated income and expenses of business entities, the amount of their property, incl. data on the receipt and use of income from state (municipal) property;
the volume of income of the population;
data on the execution of budgets of different levels, etc.

An important role is played by the consolidated financial balance drawn up for the planned year and for the forecast period. It allows you to present in the complex:

the financial situation of the country, individual territories;
financial implications of ongoing reforms;
the possibility of implementing the measures planned for the future.

Budget forecasting depends on the quality of the forecast of the main indicators of the country's socio-economic development, the correctness of determining the dynamics of market conditions, the validity of the proposed changes, the state of money circulation, the ruble exchange rate, etc., therefore, several options for the country's socio-economic development in the forecast period are being developed. Analysis of options allows you to determine three possible models of economic development: under the most favorable, average and worst conditions. These models are taken as the basis for budget forecasts, during the development of which the most probable variant of the development of socio-economic processes in the forecast period is selected. At the same time, measures taken by the state to regulate the economy (if any), to stimulate production, etc. are taken into account. Forecasts make it possible to correctly assess the development trends that are actually taking shape in society and possible consequences implementation of state target programs.

Various methods are used in the process of budget forecasting:

mathematical modeling;
index;
normative;
expert assessments;
balance sheet, etc.

Method of mathematical modeling, based on the use of economic and mathematical models, allows you to take into account many interrelated factors that affect budget indicators, and choose the most suitable one from several options for the draft budget - corresponding to the accepted concept of the country's socio-economic development and the ongoing budget policy.

At index method various indices are used that reflect price dynamics, living standards, real incomes of the population, etc. Widely used (price index) - coefficient for converting prices into constants, designed to calculate the budget of income and expenses, because. they are primarily affected by inflation.

Tools normative method are progressive norms and financial and budgetary norms necessary for calculating budget revenues on the basis of established tax rates and taking into account some macroeconomic guidelines:

level ;
limit size (in % of GDP and budget expenditures);
limit value, etc.

TO method of expert assessments they resort when the patterns of development of certain economic processes have not yet been identified, there are no analogues, and it is necessary to use specially performed calculations of top-class experts.

balance method, at which comparisons are made (assets with liabilities, the whole with its parts, etc.), allows you to link the costs of any budget with its income, to identify the proportions in the distribution of funds between budgets.

Budget forecasting comes down to calculating probable (in relation to the corresponding level of the budget system: state, local), determining the volume and directions of spending budget funds, establishing possible changes in interbudgetary relations.

If forecast calculations relate to the upcoming (planned) year, then they are performed for specific types of income and expenses in accordance with the budget classification in force in the country; if they refer to the period following the planned year, for the main parameters and structure of the corresponding budget.

In the course of forecasting budget revenues, the following tasks are solved:

the amount of financial resources in the country is calculated;
the level and size of their possible centralization at the disposal of the state and local self-government are determined;
most effective forms and withdrawal methods Money to the budget;
explores the possibility of influencing through the development of production and services, the introduction of new technologies, etc.;
the optimal proportions of income distribution between the budgets of different levels are determined.

When developing forecasts of budget expenditures, first determine:

the main indicators of the development of sectors of the economy, regions and municipalities;
directions of development of state and municipal sectors of the economy;
directions for carrying out structural reforms, taking into account the possibilities of the budget.

Then, on their basis, install:

a list of targeted programs to be financed from budgetary funds;
limiting volumes of budget financing of targeted programs;
distribution of funding volumes by recipients of budgetary funds in accordance with functional and economic classifications of expenditures.

When forecasting interbudgetary relations, the following are established:

the basic principles of delimitation of powers in the field of budget revenues and expenditures between the links of the budget system;
sizes and forms of rendering financial assistance to budgets of lower levels.

An important direction of budget forecasting is the analysis of financial and budgetary legislation and the establishment of the need for its improvement. The identification of this fact entails the development of proposals for the phased introduction of new regulations and adjustment (partial change), suspension or cancellation of existing ones, aimed at the timely and complete mobilization of projected revenues, providing budget expenditures with the necessary resources, targeted and efficient use of budget funds, strengthening budgetary discipline.

Budget forecasting

The financial budget is a plan that reflects the expected sources of funds and directions for their use in the future period. The financial budget includes the capital expenditure budget, the cash budget of the enterprise and, prepared on their basis, together with the budget income statement, the budget balance sheet and the cash flow statement.

Budgetary forecasting is a reasonable assumption, based on real calculations, about the directions of budget development, the possible states of its revenues and expenditures in the future, the ways and timing of achieving these states; an integral part of the budget process, the basis of budget planning. The forecast is based on a careful study of information about the state of the budget at the moment; determining, in accordance with the identified patterns, different options for achieving the expected budget indicators; finding, as a result of the analysis, the best option for the development of budgetary relations. Budget forecasting focuses on finding an optimistic solution to problems, on choosing the best possible option.

A budget development forecast is a complex of probabilistic assessments of possible ways of developing its revenue and expenditure parts. This is a reasonable assumption, based on real calculations, about the directions of budget development, the possible states of its revenues and expenditures in the future, the ways and timing of achieving these states. Budget forecasting is an integral part of the budget process, the basis of budget planning.

The purpose of budget forecasting is to develop and substantiate optimal ways of developing the budget on the basis of current trends, specific socio-economic conditions and prospective estimates and, on this basis, give proposals for strengthening it. Timely consideration of the results of such forecasting is important condition to take the most effective measures in the financial policy of the state, region.

The calculation of projected budget indicators is based on different methodological approaches than the calculations of annual budget indicators. If the indicators of annual and quarterly budgets are determined on the basis of direct calculations of economic and financial parameters, then when determining forecast budget indicators, as a rule, this is not possible due to the lack of necessary statistical and reporting data.

Financial and budgetary forecasting is a relatively young branch of financial science. Its development was associated with the need to draw up consolidated financial balance sheets for the future. A significant contribution to the development of methods for prospective financial calculations was made by A.M. Volkov, V.A. Galanov, L.P. Evstigneeva, B.C. Pavlov, G.B. Polyak, G.Ya. Shakhov.

When developing a budget development forecast, various methods can be used.

1) extrapolation method, i.e., drawing up a perspective based on the practice of previous periods. However, this method is suitable for forecasting only certain items of budget expenditures and revenues that are more or less stable.

2) Method of expert assessments, i.e., a forecast based on estimates made and substantiated by competent specialists in certain branches of science and the national economy is also not without flaws, since it has an element of subjectivity. The method of expert assessments is resorted to when the patterns of development of certain economic processes have not yet been identified, there are no analogues, and it is necessary to use specially performed calculations by expert experts.

3) Index Method- various indices are used that reflect the dynamics of prices, living standards, real incomes of the population, etc. The deflator (price index) is widely used - the coefficient for converting prices into constant ones, designed to calculate the budget of income and expenses, since they are primarily affected by inflation.

4) balance method, at which comparisons are made (assets with liabilities, the whole with its parts, etc.), allows you to link the costs of any budget with its income, to identify the proportions in the distribution of funds between budgets.

One of the ways to extrapolate the main financial patterns can be regression lines, the reliability of which is increased by building multi-step correlation models that make forecasted budget indicators dependent on several variables. Therefore, work on the budget forecast should begin with the identification and study of factors (variables) that affect the formation of the budget. These factors include the development of the country's productive forces and the availability of nationwide financial resources, demographic changes, the development of economic sectors, etc. Demographic forecasting, for example, makes it possible to determine the directions for the use of funds, i.e., to identify priorities in financing local economic sectors.

To calculate the main indicators of the federal budget for the future, correlations can be used between the volume of federal budget revenues and two variables: national income and gross output of industry and agriculture, as well as the relationship between these indicators and income tax. The correlation coefficients show great closeness in the studied relationships, and this is understandable: budget revenues are formed primarily at the expense of national income, and the relationship between income tax and profit itself is obvious.

When forecasting the volume of budget resources for the future, one should use a deep economic and statistical analysis of current trends, which allows, on average, with a certain degree of probability, to level the influence of many factors, to identify the most common trends in the totality. Qualitative analysis showed that the statistical models that determine the resources of the federal budget provide well-consistent data on its volume in the short term.

The forecast is based on:

1) careful study of information on the state of the budget at the moment;

2) determining, in accordance with the identified patterns, different options for achieving the expected budget indicators;

3) finding, as a result of the analysis, the best option for the development of budgetary relations.

Budget forecasting focuses on finding an optimistic solution to problems, on choosing the best possible option. At the same time, the continuity of budget forecasting determines the systematic refinement of budget indicators as new data are generated.

To make forecasts, two approaches are used: genetic and normative-target.

With the genetic approach, forecasting is carried out from the present to the future on the basis of establishing cause-and-effect relationships; with a normative-target - the future goal and guidelines for moving towards it according to the standards are determined, possible events and measures that need to be taken to achieve a given result in the future are investigated.

Budgeting is a method of financial planning in an enterprise. The budget is a quantitative embodiment financial plan, characterizes income and expenses for future periods, determines the resources that need to be attracted, and the direction of their spending to achieve planned goals. The balance sheet is also a budget, since it mutually links the sources of financing and the assets in which they are invested.

The enterprise budget is a system of interrelated commercial, production, economic and financial plans for the development of the organization as a whole, and individual structural divisions, based on the current and strategic goals of functioning.

Stages of budgeting in a manufacturing enterprise:

1) preparation of a sales forecast and sales budget (when, what and how much is planned to be sold);

2) planning and determining the volume of production (what and in what quantities to produce in order to ensure sales volume);

3) calculation of production and sales costs (how much and when to buy materials, raw materials, how much to pay employees who carry out the production program, etc.);

4) calculation of cash flows (estimation of income and expenses); 5) preparation of planned balances and other planned reports.

The total budget of the enterprise consists of operating and financial budgets. The operating budget is a plan of income and expenses from current business operations. The financial budget is a plan for attracting sources and directions for the use of financial resources.

The last step in the overall budget preparation process is the development of a financial forecast or projected balance sheet for the enterprise as a whole. After preparing the cash budget, already knowing the projected cash balance at the end of the budget period and having determined the net profit and the amount of capital investments required, it becomes possible to prepare the projected balance sheet, which is the end product of the entire master budgeting process.

The limited material and financial resources reinforce the role right choice priorities of the business entity. In this regard, budgeting is designed to ensure a competitive production process, subject to the optimal use of all resources, the effective development of the enterprise in accordance with changes in external conditions.

For Russian entrepreneurship, the following questions are relevant, which are usually answered by budgeting:

Forecasting the financial results of economic activity and the financial solvency of certain types of activities and products;

Establishment of performance targets and resource spending limits;

Determination of the most preferred further development organization of business projects and decisions on the levels of their financing from internal and external sources;

Monitoring the implementation of budget indicators and analysis of the performance of structural divisions.

The following principles can be defined as the main requirements for the development of an enterprise budget:

1. The principle of accuracy means that the budget of the enterprise must be drawn up with such a degree of accuracy that is compatible with a certain level of uncertainty within which management decisions have to be made. Plans should be specific and detailed to the extent that the external and internal conditions of the company's activities allow.

2. Continuity principle assumes that the procedure for budgeting and monitoring its implementation should be carried out constantly within the framework of the established regulations.

3. Participation principle means that all interested persons become a participant in planning activities (planning centers) - structural units or officials who determine the main directions of development of the enterprise within their competence.

4. Principle of optimality involves budgeting based on modeling and choosing the best option from several possible alternatives.

5. The principle of proportionality means a balanced accounting of the resources and capabilities of the enterprise.

6. The principle of efficiency requires the development of such an option for the production of goods and services, which, given the existing restrictions on the resources used, provides the greatest economic effect.

A cash budget is a planning document that reflects future payments and cash receipts. Income is classified according to the source of receipt of funds, and expenses - according to the directions of use. The expected cash balance at the end of the period is compared with the minimum amount of cash that must be constantly maintained (the size of the minimum amount is determined by the managers of the enterprise). The difference is either an unspent surplus of money or a shortage of cash.

Minimum sum of money is a kind of buffer that allows you to save the situation in case of errors in cash management and in case of unforeseen circumstances. This minimum amount of cash is not fixed. As a rule, it will be somewhat larger during periods of high business activity than during recessions. In addition, to improve the efficiency of cash management, a significant part of this amount may be held in deposit accounts.

The cash budget is compiled separately for three types of activities: core, investment and financial. This division is very convenient and visually represents cash flows.

Data on the sales budget, the various production and operating budgets, and the capital budget are reflected in the cash budget. Dividend payments, equity or long-term debt financing plans, and other projects requiring cash expenditures should also be taken into account.

On final stage budgeting process, a forecast balance is drawn up.

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2.1 Prediction methods

1. Theoretical foundations of budget forecasting

A forecast is understood as a scientifically based judgment about the possible states of an object in the future, about alternative ways and timing of its implementation. Socio-economic forecasting is the process of developing economic and social forecasts based on scientific methods of understanding economic and social phenomena and using the entire set of methods, methods and means of economic forecasting.

Forecasting has two sides or planes of specification: predictive (descriptive, descriptive); prescriptive (prescriptive). Prediction means a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling means solving these problems by using information about the future in a purposeful activity.

Thus, two aspects are distinguished in forecasting: epistemological and managerial.

Economic forecasting has as its object the process of specific expanded reproduction in all its diversity. The subject of economic forecasting is the knowledge of the possible states of functioning economic objects in the future, the study of patterns and methods for developing economic forecasts.

Economic forecasting is based on the assumption that the future state of the economy is largely determined by its past and present states. The future also carries elements of uncertainty. This is explained by the following points:

The presence of not one, but many options for possible development;

The operation of economic laws in the future depends not only on the past and present state of the economy, but also on management decisions that have yet to be made and implemented;

Incomplete degree of knowledge of economic laws, lack and insufficient reliability of information.

The unity of certainty (determination) and uncertainty of the future is a decisive prerequisite for economic forecasting. If the future were completely certain, then there would be no need for forecasting. With the uncertainty of the future, the very possibility of economic forecasting is excluded.

An important role in the development of economic forecasting is played by the applied scientific discipline of forecasting and its component- economic forecasting.

Forecasting should be considered in conjunction with a broader concept - foresight, which gives a leading reflection of reality, based on the knowledge of the laws of nature, society and thinking. There are three forms of scientific foresight: hypothesis, forecast and plan.

A hypothesis characterizes scientific foresight at the level general theory. At the level of a hypothesis, a qualitative characteristic of the objects under study is given, expressing general patterns their behaviour.

The forecast, in comparison with the hypothesis, has a significantly greater qualitative and quantitative certainty and is more reliable.

The plan is the setting of a precisely defined goal and the prediction of specific, detailed events of the object under study. His distinctive features: certainty, specificity, targeting, obligatory or indicative. There are significant differences between forecast and plan. The forecast is probabilistic, and the plan is mandatory. A plan is an unambiguous decision, while a forecast, by its very nature, has a probable content. While planning is aimed at the adoption and practical implementation of managerial decisions, the purpose of forecasting is to create scientific prerequisites for their adoption.

Thus, the task of economic forecasting is, on the one hand, to find out the prospects for the near or more distant future in the area under study, and on the other hand, to help optimize current and long-term planning and regulation of the economy, based on the forecast.

The typology of forecasts is built depending on various criteria and features. Among them are the following:

1) scale of forecasting;

2) lead time or forecast time horizon;

3) the nature of the object;

4) functional feature;

5) the degree of determinism (certainty) of forecasting objects;

6) the nature of the development of forecasting objects in time;

7) the degree of information provision of forecasting objects.

According to the scale of forecasting, there are:

Macroeconomic forecast;

Structural (intersectoral and interregional) forecast;

Forecasts for the development of national economic complexes (energy, investment, agro-industrial, etc.);

Industry and regional forecasts;

Forecasts for the development of individual enterprises, joint-stock companies, as well as individual industries and products.

By lead time or time horizon, all forecasts are divided into:

Operative (up to 1 month);

Short-term (from 1 month to 1 year);

Medium-term (from 1 year to 5 years);

Long-term (from 5 years to 15-20 years);

Long-term (over 20 years).

The time horizon of the forecast can be defined as the period of time within which changes in the volume of the predicted object appear to be commensurate with its initial (including forecast horizon) value, and as the period during which the forecast object is influenced by the decisions applied today, i.e. e. at the time of forecasting.

With regard to comprehensive national economic forecasts, the following classification is adopted: short-term forecasts up to 2-3 years, medium-term forecasts up to 5-7 years, long-term forecasts up to 15-20 years. Each of these types of forecasts is based on those stable cycles and processes in the development of the economy, the duration of which fits into the corresponding time horizon.

The developed forecasts are based on certain groundwork: short-term - on the available types of products and financial resources; medium-term - on the accumulated investment potential; long-term - for certain areas of scientific and technical progress and new technologies.

According to the nature of the objects under study, the following forecasts are distinguished:

Development of industrial relations;

Development of scientific and technical progress and its consequences;

Dynamics of the national economy;

Reproduction of fixed assets and capital investments;

Economic use of natural resources;

Reproduction of the population and labor resources;

the standard of living of the population;

Foreign economic relations, etc.

According to the functional basis, forecasts are divided into two types:

Search forecast, which is based on a conditional continuation into the future of the development trend of the object under study in the past and present, and abstraction from conditions that can change these trends;

Normative forecast, which is a definition of the ways and timing of achieving the possible states of the object of forecasting, taken as a goal.

According to the degree of determinism, the following forecasting objects can be distinguished:

Deterministic (definite or predictable), the description of which can be presented in a deterministic form without significant loss of information for the problem of forecasting;

Stochastic (probabilistic), in the analysis and forecasting of which it is necessary to take into account random components to meet the requirements for accuracy and reliability of the forecast;

Mixed, the description of which is possible partly in a deterministic, partly in a stochastic form.

According to the nature of development in time, forecasting objects can be divided into:

Discrete (discontinuous) objects, the regular component (trend) of which changes in jumps at fixed times;

Aperiodic objects that have a description of the regular component as a continuous function of time;

Cyclic objects that have a regular component as a periodic function of time.

According to the degree of information provision, forecasting objects can be divided into:

Objects with full provision of quantitative information, for which retrospective quantitative information is available in an amount sufficient to implement the extrapolation method, or the statistical method;

Objects with incomplete provision of quantitative information;

Objects with the availability of high-quality retrospective information;

Objects with a complete lack of retrospective information (as a rule, these are objects under design and under construction).

In the theory and practice of planned activity, a significant set of different methods for developing forecasts and plans has been accumulated over the past years.

Forecasting methods should be understood as a set of techniques and ways of thinking that allow, on the basis of retrospective data of external and internal relations of the object of forecasting, as well as their measurements within the framework of the phenomenon or process under consideration, to derive certain and reliable judgments regarding the future state and development of the object.

The development of computer science and computer technology creates the possibility of expanding the range of forecasting and planning methods used and improving them.

In the process of economic forecasting, both general scientific methods and approaches to research are used, as well as specific methods inherent in socio-economic forecasting. Common methods include the following:

The historical method consists in considering each phenomenon in the interconnection of its historical forms;

The complex method consists in considering phenomena in their interdependence, using research methods not only for this, but also for other sciences that study these phenomena;

The system method involves the study of quantitative and qualitative patterns of the flow of probabilistic processes in complex economic systems;

The structural method allows you to establish the causes of the phenomenon under study, to explain its structure;

The system-structural method assumes, on the one hand, the consideration of the system as a dynamically developing whole, and on the other hand, the division of the system into constituent structural elements and their consideration in interaction.

Specific methods of economic forecasting are entirely related to economic forecasting. Among the tools of economic forecasting, an important role is played by economic and mathematical methods, methods of economic and mathematical modeling, statistical extrapolation, etc.

Of great importance for forecasting is the question of its objective truth, which refers to the correspondence of the forms and parameters of foresight to objective possibilities and trends that will be realized in the future and at the same time are present in the form of germs of this future. The question of the truth of forecasting is closely related to the problem of criteria of truth, which are divided into two groups: practical criteria (practice as a criterion of truth at all stages of forecasting) and logical or indirect criteria (testability of forecasts, their adequacy, logical consistency).

Specific methods of economic forecasting are classified according to the following criteria: degree of formalization; general principle of action; method of obtaining forecast information.

According to the degree of formalization, i.e. study of any content area of knowledge in the form of a formal system associated with strengthening the role of formal logic and using mathematical methods scientific research, methods of economic forecasting can be divided into intuitive and formalized.

Intuitive forecasting methods are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the significant complexity of the forecasting object. In this case, expert estimates are used. At the same time, individual and collective expert assessments are distinguished, which are united by a common principle of action.

The composition of individual expert assessments includes: the “interview” method, the analytical method, the method of writing scenarios, building a “tree of goals”. When distinguishing between these methods, the third feature of the classification method is used - a method for obtaining predictive information. The methods of collective expert assessments include the methods of "commissions", "collective generation of ideas" (brainstorming), "Delphi", the matrix method, etc.

The group of formalized methods includes two subgroups: extrapolation and modeling. The first subgroup includes methods of least squares, exponential smoothing, moving averages, etc. The second subgroup includes methods of mathematical modeling, regression and correlation analysis, etc.

In addition, normative and balance methods are widely used in the process of economic forecasting. A special place in the classification of economic forecasting methods is occupied by combined methods that combine various methods. For example, collective expert judgments and modeling techniques or statistical methods and a survey of experts.

Intuitive forecasting methods.

1. Methods of individual expert assessments.

The “interview” method allows for direct contact between an expert and a specialist according to the “question-answer” scheme, during which the forecaster, in accordance with a pre-developed program, puts questions to the expert regarding the prospects for the development of the predicted object.

The analytical method allows you to carry out a logical analysis of any predictable situation and present it in the form of an analytical note. It involves the independent work of an expert on the analysis of trends, assessment of the state and development paths of the predicted object.

The scenario writing method is based on determining the logic of the development of a process or phenomenon in time when various conditions. The main purpose of the scenario is to determine the general goal of the development of the predicted object, phenomenon and formulate criteria for evaluating the upper levels of the “goal tree”. A scenario is a picture showing a consistent detailed solution of a problem, identification of possible obstacles, detection of serious shortcomings in order to resolve the issue of a possible termination of the work begun or the completion of ongoing work on the predicted object.

The “tree of goals” method (Figure 1.) is used in the analysis of systems, objects, processes in which several structural or hierarchical levels can be distinguished. The "tree of goals" is built by sequentially highlighting smaller and smaller components at lower levels. The figure shows that each branch at each level splits into two branches of the next lower level.

Figure 1. Target tree method

The branching point is called a vertex. At least two branches must emanate from each vertex, and the number of these branches is not limited from above, that is, there can be three, five or more of them at the top level.

In building a “goal tree”, three conditions must be noted:

1) branches outgoing from one vertex must form a closed set;

2) branches coming from one vertex must be mutually exclusive, that is, there should not be a partial coincidence of objects represented by two different branches coming from one vertex;

3) the “target tree” used in normative forecasting should be considered as a set of goals and subgoals.

2. Methods of collective expert assessments.

The “commissions” method consists in determining the consistency of expert opinions on promising areas for the development of the forecasting object, previously formulated by individual specialists. This means that the development of this object cannot be determined by other methods. The content of this method is as follows:

Establishment of working groups that provide preparation and conduct of the survey, processing of materials and analysis of the results of an expert assessment;

Clarification of the main directions of development of the object, determination of the general goal, sub-goals and means to achieve them;

Development of questions for experts, ensuring unambiguous understanding of certain issues by experts, as well as the independence of their judgments;

Appointment of a group of experts to develop a forecast;

Conducting a survey and processing materials;

Specifies the final score of the survey, which is displayed either as the average of the judgment, or as the arithmetic mean, or as the weighted average of the score.

The “Delphi” method consists in organizing a systematic collection of expert assessments, their mathematical and statistical processing, and sequential adjustments by experts of their assessments based on the results of each processing cycle. Its main features are: anonymity of experts; a multi-round procedure for interviewing experts through their questioning; providing experts with information, including its exchange between experts, after each round of the survey, while maintaining the anonymity of the assessments; substantiation of the experts' answers at the request of the organizers. The method is designed to obtain relatively reliable information in situations of its acute insufficiency, for example, in problems of long-term scientific and technical complex forecasting.

The method of "collective generation of ideas" is appropriate for determining possible options for the development of the forecasting object and obtaining productive results in a short time by involving all experts in an active creative process. The essence of this method is to mobilize the creative potential of experts during brainstorming and generate ideas, followed by the destruction (destruction, criticism) of these ideas and the formulation of counter-ideas.

Formalized forecasting methods.

These methods are based on mathematical theory, which provides an increase in the reliability and accuracy of forecasts, significantly reduces the time for their implementation, and allows for information processing and evaluation of results.

The extrapolation method consists in applying the development trend of the economic process determined for the base period to the forecast period, it is based on the preservation of the prevailing conditions for the development of the process in the future. When using this method, it is necessary to have information about the stability of the development trends of the object for a period that is 2-3 times longer than the forecast period. A long-term trend in economic indicators is called a trend. Extrapolation sequence:

A clear definition of the task, hypotheses about the possible development of the predicted object, consideration of factors that stimulate or hinder the development of this object, determine the necessary extrapolation and its allowable range;

The choice of a system of parameters, the unification of various units of measurement related to each parameter separately;

Collection and systematization of data, verification of their homogeneity and comparability;

Identification of trends or symptoms of changes in the studied quantities in the course of statistical analysis and direct extrapolation of data.

Modeling is considered to be a fairly effective means of forecasting.

Economic and mathematical modeling is based on the principle of analogy, that is, the possibility of studying an object through the consideration of another object similar to it and more accessible. Such a more accessible object is the economic-mathematical model. It is a system of formalized equations that describe the basic interconnections of the elements that form an economic system or any economic process.

This model makes it possible to bring the process of obtaining and processing initial information to a complete and exhaustive description, as well as to solve the problems under consideration in a fairly wide class of specific cases.

The normative method is applied on the basis of the calculation of predictive indicators. Norms and standards are developed in advance on a legislative or departmental basis. Norm is the maximum allowable value. The standard is the ratio of the elements of the production process (a component of the norm).

Norms and standards are divided into resource, economic and social. If necessary, they are concretized and differentiated by individual areas, objects, regions. For example, the following standards are used: social development - per capita consumption, subsistence level, living space, etc.

expert assessment budget forecasting

2. Significance and tasks of forecasting

Budgetary forecasting - a reasonable assumption based on real calculations about the directions of budget development, possible states of its income and expenses in the future, ways and timing of achieving these states; an integral part of the budget process, the basis of budget planning. The forecast is based on a careful study of information about the state of the budget at the moment; determining, in accordance with the identified patterns, different options for achieving the expected budget indicators; finding, as a result of the analysis, the best option for the development of budgetary relations. Budget forecasting directs the authorities to find the optimal solution to problems, choosing the best possible option. In the process of budget forecasting, various options for the state budget policy, different concepts of budget development are considered, taking into account a variety of economic and social, objective and subjective factors operating at the federal, regional and local levels, etc. At the same time, the continuity of budget forecasting determines the systematic refinement of budget indicators as new data are generated.

The purpose of budget forecasting is to develop and substantiate optimal ways of developing the budget on the basis of current trends, specific socio-economic conditions and prospective estimates and, on this basis, give proposals for strengthening it. Timely consideration of the results of such forecasting is an important condition for taking the most effective measures in the financial policy of the state, region.

Budget forecasting and, first of all, forecasting of territorial budgets is associated with the spread in the 70s of the practice of developing long-term comprehensive plans for the economic and social development of territories, in which it was necessary to make forecast calculations of budget indicators as the basis for planning financial support for the activities provided for by these plans. The methodology for forecasting territorial budgets was first developed and tested in our country in 1976 by G.B. Polyak during the preparation and implementation of comprehensive plans for the economic and social development of administrative-territorial units. The problems of territorial budget forecasting are also reflected in the works of S.K. Bitokov, N.M. Dementieva, T.T. Tulebaev.

2.2 Prediction methods

When developing a budget development forecast, various methods can be used:

1) The method of extrapolation, i.e., drawing up a perspective based on the practice of previous periods. However, this method is suitable for forecasting only certain items of budget expenditures and revenues that are more or less stable.

2) The method of expert assessments, i.e., a forecast based on assessments made and substantiated by competent specialists in certain branches of science and the national economy, is also not without drawbacks, since it has an element of subjectivity.

3) Application of these two methods at the same time; at the same time, both objective development trends and expert opinions are used.

One of the ways to extrapolate the main financial patterns can be regression lines, the reliability of which is increased by building multi-step correlation models that make forecasted budget indicators dependent on several variables. Therefore, work on the budget forecast should begin with the identification and study of factors (variables) that affect the formation of the budget. These factors include the development of the country's productive forces and the availability of national financial resources, demographic changes, the development of economic sectors, etc.

When forecasting the volume of budget resources for the future, one should use a deep economic and statistical analysis of current trends, which allows, on average, with a certain degree of probability, to level the influence of many factors, to identify the most common trends in the totality. Qualitative analysis showed that the statistical models that determine the resources of the federal budget, gave a well-consistent data on its volume in the short term.

The regression equations with the above two variables are linear:

where y is the volume of federal budget resources;

x - 1) products produced in the sectors of the national economy, 2) the national income produced;

a0, a1 -- coefficients of the regression line that determine its specific form based on the initial data.

When developing these models, an independent problem is finding the values of independent variables (national income and output) in the forecast period. To determine them, forecast calculations of the indicated general economic indicators are used. Economic analysis is supplemented by the study of the rates of development of the indicators under study, their mutual relationships, calculations of the average annual rates of the phenomena under study by year, comparison of their development with the rates of other economic quantities (industrial fixed assets, population, etc.). Such an analysis is necessary because the federal budget is related to real economic situations and therefore quickly responds to changes in any sector of the national economy, is associated with the policy in the field of social protection of the population, changes in the procedure for financing the main costs of the state, etc.

Forecasting the development of territorial budgets is based on other indicators. Since population growth and changes in its structure have a direct impact on the development of all sectors of the local economy, and, consequently, on the development of territorial budgets, much attention in forecasting is paid to the analysis of the prospects for demographic changes.

Demographic forecasting makes it possible to determine directions for the use of funds, i.e., to identify priorities in financing sectors of the local economy.

1) The functional dependence of the volume of territorial budgets on population growth is described by the equations:

y = a0 + a1 x ; y = ax3

where y is the volume of territorial budgets;

x - the population of the administrative-territorial unit.

In the first case, a linear model is used, in the second, a parabolic one. The correlation coefficients of these equations showed great tightness in the studied relationships. And this is quite understandable, since the size of expenditures of territorial budgets depends primarily on the population for which these expenditures are intended.

With the help of these economic and mathematical models, it is possible to calculate not only the size of the total expenditures of territorial budgets, but also the expenditures on the national economy, social and cultural events.

2) You can also predict the amount of spending on education and health care. For these purposes, a multifactorial linear model is used:

y = ax1 + ax2

where y is the cost of social and cultural events;

x1 -- expenditures on education;

x2 -- health care costs.

A similar model can be applied when calculating the predicted indicators of expenses for the maintenance of general education schools, hospitals, etc.

An important direction of budget forecasting is the analysis of financial and budgetary legislation and the establishment of the need for its improvement. The identification of this fact entails the development of proposals for the phased introduction of new legal acts and the adjustment (partial change), suspension or cancellation of existing ones, aimed at the timely and complete mobilization of projected revenues, providing budget expenditures with the necessary resources, targeted and efficient use of budget funds, strengthening budgetary discipline

Until recently, budget forecasting in Russia was limited to one year, and, starting from 1994, along with annual forecasts, quarterly forecasts were also developed. They were used to refine the budget projections for the current year, to better organize the work on budget execution. Since 1998, in the process of budget forecasting, a forecast has been made for a 3-year period (in countries with a developed market economy and a high degree of computerization of management processes, forecasts cover both 5-year and 7-year periods). The developed forecast is annually refined and supplemented by calculations for Last year forecast period. Thus, the forecast for 1999-2001, compiled in 1998, was supplemented in 1999 with a forecast for 2002 and turned into a forecast for 2000-2002. Accordingly, in 2000 it became a forecast for 2001-2003, in 2001 for 2002-2004, and so on.

Bibliography

1. Federal Law No. 145 of July 31, 1998 “On the Budget Code of the Russian Federation”.

2. Federal Law of September 25, 1997 No. 126 “On the financial foundations of local self-government in Russian Federation»

3. Federal Law of July 20, 1995 No. 115 “On State Forecasting and Programs for the Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation”

4. The budget system of the Russian Federation / Ed. M.V. Romanovsky. -M: Yurayt, 2008.

5. The budget system of Russia: Textbook for universities / ed. Prof. G.B. Pole. -M.: UNITY-DANA, 1999

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Budget forecasting and planning: essence, methods and role in the organization of the budget process. Financial forecasting at the enterprise For what purpose are budget forecasts formed

Budget forecasting

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