September 18, 2016 in all settlements RF (cities, towns, villages) elections to the State Duma of the country will be held. The original election day date of 4 December has been changed. Due to the prematureness of the elections and the early termination of work, all re-elected deputies will receive monetary compensation for the time of "unemployment". Representatives of 14 parties are fighting for seats in the Duma, but not all of them will gain the required number of “percentages”. In the question of who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016, there are many points that are not yet fully understood, although the three leaders of opinion polls have already decided. According to the results of a poll of voters and the opinion of experts, three parties will definitely get into the State Duma: United Russia, LDPR and the Communist Party.

Who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016 - the opinion of experts

According to experts, despite the rapid decline in confidence in the United Russia party, the majority of Russians who are afraid of change will support United Russia. As a percentage, the number of seats for deputies from United Russia can range from 40% to 55%: September is still far away, and changes are constantly taking place in the political arena of Russia and the world. In the summer of 2016, the popularity of Vladimir Zhirinovsky's party, the LDPR, grew at an all-time high. Thanks to the well-thought-out policy pursued by the party and the charisma, eccentricity of the personality of Vladimir Volfovich himself, the LDPR "selected" a huge part of the percentage of voters from United Russia and Just Russia. From the very beginning of the Crimean events, the LDPR supports the decision of the Crimeans and the position of the President of Russia, which is also approved by the majority of the country's citizens. In addition, the liberal democrats "took" part of the electorate from the communists. Gennady Zyuganov is supported by many pensioners and young communists, but their number is less than adherents of the line of the LDPR party. Nevertheless, it is these three parties, among which United Russia is likely to receive the majority of votes, that will determine who will implement reforms and pass laws in Russia, starting as early as September 2016.

Who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016, forecast

According to the forecast of most political scientists, the United Russia party will win the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation in 2016. The number of seats given to representatives from the Communist and Liberal Democrat parties is likely to be approximately the same. About 28-30% of all deputies will represent these parties. Most likely, deputies from Yabloko and PARNAS will go to the State Duma. Today, groups have been created on social networks, in particular, such as Vkontakte and Facebook, where community members discuss the upcoming elections to the Duma in 2016 and the likelihood of who will win the fight. In almost every of these communities, a mini-vote is carried out for certain batch. To date, independent voters are going to support the United Russia, Parnassus, LDPR and KPRF parties. Do not forget that the majority of VK users are young people, so the picture (from an age point of view) is incomplete. It is in order to understand who and whom is supported in the future Duma, public opinion polls are being conducted.

Who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016, the results of a poll

According to the latest, summer polls of Russians, in the elections in State Duma Russia is going to take part at least 45% of the country's citizens. For some, this percentage will seem low, but even in the earlier elections to the State Duma, the number of citizens participating in them was less than half of the electorate. Today, more than half of those who will take part in the elections on September 18 will vote for United Russia. About 15% of citizens are sure that they will support the Liberal Democratic Party, and about 20% - the Communist Party. Today, about 4% of voters would vote for A Just Russia, while Yabloko is less trusted (about 2%). About 2% of the Russians polled generally stated that they intended to somehow spoil the ballots; the same number plans to vote "against all", deleting all parties from the electoral lists. The latter are sure that United Russia will win the elections in any alignment of forces, and it is simply impossible to change anything here.

Today, not only experts and political scientists know for sure the answer to the question of who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016. Their forecasts fully coincide with the opinion of the majority of people expressed in the course of opinion polls conducted both in the capital and in other cities of the country. The United Russia party will become the leader, but the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party will definitely enter the parliament. It is difficult to predict the percentage of deputies from the remaining 11 parties participating in the elections to the State Duma. The situation is changing every day, which is especially dangerous for the Yabloko and Just Russia parties, which are almost sure of overcoming the required 5% barrier and obtaining the required number of votes.

A week before the election, sociological services predict that four parties will overcome the 5% barrier. Voting results may be unexpected, as a sixth of voters still have not decided on their choice

Monday, September 12 is the last day sociological services can publishmeasurements of public opinion before the State Duma elections. The law prohibits publication of the results of public opinion polls and forecasts of election results within five days before election day (September 18), as well as on election day.

Undecided Party

The latest data published by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) and the Levada Center show that four parties, United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and Just Russia, overcome the five percent barrier to entry into the Duma. According to the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), only three parties will overcome this barrier - only 4% of those polled by the FOM are ready to vote for A Just Russia. Willingness to vote for all other parties, including Yabloko, the Party of Growth, PARNAS, was expressed by 1% of the respondents.

According to the FOM, 44% will definitely take part in the elections, another 30% are inclined to vote (the last poll was conducted on September 3-4, 3,000 respondents were polled in 73 subjects of the Russian Federation). Data from the Levada Center (the last poll published on August 26-29 in 48 regions, polled 1,600 people) shows less enthusiasm of voters: 20% say they will definitely go to vote, another 28% are inclined to vote.

During the election campaign, the number of undecided in their choice has sharply increased. 14.6% of VTsIOM respondents (the latest data was published on September 4, 1,600 people in 42 regions were polled) say they do not know which party they will vote for. In April, only 8% of respondents could not answer the question about electoral preferences. At FOM, 16% of respondents found it difficult to choose, in April there were 11%. This is the highest rate of voter uncertainty since 2011.

party with the president

strong fluctuations in last week demonstrates the rating of "United Russia". ​ ​According to the FOM, the share of Russians who are ready to vote for United Russia is 41%. On August 28, the FOM reported that 44% of Russians polled declared support for the party in power. Since January 2016, the party's rating in the FOM data has decreased by 9%. The number of Russians who definitely do not trust United Russia has grown by 2% (from 12% to 14%) and negatively assess the party's activities (from 25% to 27%). The most positive attitude towards United Russia is rural residents and citizens without income, it follows from the survey data.

According to VTsIOM , 39.3% are ready to vote for the ruling party. In mid-August about the desire to vote United Russia 44% of Russians told, in April there were 47.6% A sharp drop in the United Russia rating in early September Levada Center. The number of citizens who are ready to vote for the ruling party in the State Duma elections decreased in August from 39 to 31% of respondents, sociologists reported.

United Russia's rating is not decreasing, it behaves differently in different regions, Vyacheslav Volodin, the first deputy head of the presidential administration, commented at a meeting with political scientists last week (heads the regional group of United Russia). The trend is "multi-vector", he assured. “In a number of territories it [the trend] is flat, in a number of territories, including St. Petersburg, it is declining, in some territories, including Moscow, it is growing,” Volodin classified. The fall is taking place in those regions where United Russia did not nominate its candidates in single-mandate districts, yielding them to the opposition, a Kremlin official. A week before the Duma elections United Russia decided to launch the last wave of campaigning, in which they will try to combine the rating of the president with the rating of the party, . And on September 10, a week before the election, President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the leader of the list of United Russia members, looked at an Orthodox church together, took a boat trip on Lake Ilmen and talked with fishermen.

The rating of President Vladimir Putin is unshakable - 82% in August (Levada Center, in June-July - 81-82%). VTsIOM shows a decrease in the rating of trust in the president: 50.2% of respondents said they had trust, in early August there were 56%. Support for the prime minister, according to the Levada Center, fell from 55% in July to 48% in August. VTsIOM, on the contrary, shows an increase in confidence in the prime minister: 9.3% of those who trust in September against 10.1% in early August.

Stability

The ratings of other parties show lesser dynamics. According to the FOM, the number of those wishing to vote for the Liberal Democratic Party remained the same - 11%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation gained 1% (up to 9%) during this time, and A Just Russia lost 1% (up to 4%). Decreased the number of those who decided not to go to the polls, from 14 to 13%. VTsIOM data show a slight increase in the rating of communists: up to 8.7% from 7.7% (at the beginning of the year there were 10% ready to vote for the Communist Party). The rating of the Liberal Democratic Party fell from 12.2 to 10.4%, 5.3% of respondents are ready to vote for A Just Russia (at the beginning of the year there were 5.6%, the peak of sympathy for the Socialist-Revolutionaries came in July, when they were ready to vote for the party vote 7.9% of the respondents). The Levada Center showed a stable rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, but the latest poll data for the first time demonstrated the passage of the five percent barrier.

The current data of sociologists is closer to reality than the forecasts before the last Duma elections, political scientist Alexei Makarkin believes. “Those elections were scandalous, there were many questions to them. Now everything is being done to avoid scandals. However, sociology cannot cover everything - the week before the elections will be decisive, ”the expert argues. According to Makarkin, the fact that a large part of the population makes decisions only at polling stations can change the situation. In addition, sociologists record an increase in the recognition of small parties. “Who will be able to attract undecided voters, we have yet to find out,” the political scientist concludes.

Upcoming elections to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly Russian Federation- already the seventh in the history of the country. On September 18, 2016, citizens will once again elect those people who will initiate and adopt laws, as well as represent the interests of their constituents in one of the most important authorities.

What forecasts do experts make? Who will win the elections to the State Duma? Which party will get the majority? Will the representatives of United Russia manage to keep the leadership and who are called its main political competitors today?

Who will win the elections to the State Duma: experts' forecasts

Russian politics has existed for only 25 years. During this time, a certain number of parties appeared (and disappeared). A narrow circle of representatives of these parties formed the (practically unchanged) backbone of the legislature. The United Russia party regularly tops ratings and polls. Competitors - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party, Just Russia, and now the Party of People's Freedom (PARNAS) during periods of active political struggle preceding each election season, actively promote their ideas.

From the point of view of political scientists and analysts, the September 18, 2016 elections will not bring any surprises. The established system will change (there are chances), but, according to political technologists, voters still believe that the government should not be changed. According to another point of view, these experts are guided by surveys of past years and do not take into account the changes that have taken place in the public mind.


Representatives of United Russia will continue to dominate the politics of the state. At the same time, United Russia's recent failures and the falling rating of the "party of power" give reason to count on new faces in the State Duma and a new parliamentary majority.
Whether these will be candidates from the Liberal Democratic Party, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Just Russia, time will tell. Analysts are based only on current ratings.

Who will win the elections to the Duma: poll results

The All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) opinion polls on the topic of who will win the elections to the State Duma. As of September 4, 2016, the rating of parties according to VTsIOM data is as follows:

• United Russia - 39.3%;
• LDPR - 10.4%;
• Communist Party - 8.7%;
• "Fair Russia" - 5.3;
• "For Justice" - 1.6;
• "Apple" - 1.1%.

The rest of the parties this moment gaining less than one percent. Therefore, they are not opponents of the current leaders.

The results of the VTsIOM poll correspond to the opinion of experts, but the latter recommend paying attention to the dynamics of changes in voters' preferences. When analyzing the data that VTsIOM publishes literally on a weekly basis during the pre-election period, several curious moments can be traced at once. First, United Russia's rating is falling (in the long term) (up to 5% in a month). The party is noticeably losing popularity, but this is not due to an increase in the ratings of its main opponents (LDPR, Communist Party, Just Russia). Polls show that the percentage of citizens who find it difficult to choose or are not going to vote at all on September 18, 2016 continues to grow: in August, the figures increased from 10.1% to 14.6% and from 11.1% and 14.7 % respectively. All this speaks of the loss of interest of the citizens of the Russian Federation in who will win the elections to the State Duma and in the electoral process as a whole.

Who will win the elections to the State Duma: predictions of psychics

It is no secret that many citizens use the services of soothsayers and fortune-tellers and those who know the future. The politicians themselves claim close contacts with such "professional fortune-tellers". The help of psychics is resorted to by the first persons of states, often creating secret departments of special services for this. Who will win the elections to the State Duma according to such predictors? Psychics and sorcerers assure that the upcoming elections to the State Duma will not cause major changes in the political map of the country. Experts, analysts, and predictors are unanimous in their conclusions: in 2016, United Russia will again receive the majority of seats in the main legislative body of the country. This means that the internal and foreign policy state will not change.

Additional related materials:

Increase in pension from January 1, 2019 and by how much: last news Minimum wage from January 1, 2019 in Russia: latest news Rules for transporting children in a car in 2019 the federal law on Bankruptcy: 2019 edition

The initiative survey was conducted on July 22-25, 2016 on a representative all-Russian sample of the urban and rural population among 1,600 people aged 18 and over in 137 settlements in 48 regions of the country.The study is conducted at the respondent's home by a personal interview.The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of total number interviewed along with data from previous surveys.

Sampling error 1600 people(with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators close to 50%

2.9% for indicators close to 25%

2.0% for indicators close to 10%

1.5% for indicators close to 5%

WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS MOST ACCURATELY REFLECTS YOUR INTENTION TO VOTE IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS TO THE STATE DUMA OF RUSSIA? (one answer)

	sept.	sept.	sept.	sept.	sept.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May.	Jun.	Jul. 16
I am sure that I will not vote in the elections to the State Duma	25	19	16	19	11	11	12	13	14	14	15	14
Doubt I'll vote	13	12	12	14	12	10	12	11	10	12	13	11
I don't know if I will vote or not	17	12	14	15	17	24	20	22	25	26	20	25
Most likely, I will vote in the elections to the State Duma	18	16	22	28	32	30	30	32	26	25	27	26
Absolutely, I will vote in this election (of course, if nothing happens to me until then)	24	37	33	20	24	21	21	19	21	19	21	20
Difficult to answer	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	3	5	5	4	5

(one answer; closed question; in % of ALL SURVEY PARTICIPANTS)

	Jan.16	Feb.16	Mar.16	apr.16	May.16	Jun. 16	Jul.16
United Russia (D. Medvedev)	39	40	40	42	35	35	39
	10	10	13	10	14	11	10
	5	6	6	7	9	9	10
	3	3	3	3	2	3	3
PARNAS (M. Kasyanov)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	1
Apple (E. Slabunova)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	1
	–	–	<1	1	1	1	1
Youth Party (V. Popov)*	–	–	–	–	–	–	<1
Civil force (K.Bykanin)	–	–	–	–	1	1	<1
Growth Party (B. Titov)	–	–	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
	–	–	–	–	<1	<1	<1
	1	<1	1	1	<1	1	<1
Motherland (A. Zhuravlev)	<1	1	1	1	<1	<1	<1
	–	–	–	–	<1	<1	<1
Patriots of Russia (G. Semigin)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
Other	2	1	1	2	1	<1	<1
	–	1	1	2	1	2	2
I don't know which party I would vote for	–	10	11	8	11	11	11
Wouldn't vote	19	16	12	10	12	14	11
No, I don't know if I would vote or not	–	11	10	12	12	11	10
Difficult to answer	22	–	–	–	–	–	–

IF THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS WAS HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU PARTICIPATE IN THESE ELECTIONS, AND IF YES, WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? (one answer; closed question; in %% of those respondents WHO ARE READY TO VOTE IN THESE ELECTIONS AND DECIDED WITH A PARTY)

	Jan.16	Feb.16	Mar.16	apr.16	May.16	Jun.16	Jul.16
United Russia (D. Medvedev)	65	64	59	60	53	55	57
Communist Party (KPRF) (G. Zyuganov)	16	17	19	15	21	18	15
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) (V. Zhirinovsky)	8	10	10	10	14	14	15
Just Russia (S. Mironov)	5	4	5	5	4	5	5
PARNAS (M. Kasyanov)	2	1	1	1	1	1	2
Apple (E. Slabunova)	1	<1	<1	<1	<1	1	1
Communists of Russia (M. Suraikin)	–	–	1	2	1	1	1
Youth Party (V. Popov)*	–	–	–	–	–	–	<1
Civil force (K.Bykanin)	–	–	–	–	1	1	<1
Growth Party (B. Titov)	–	–	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” (A. Panfilov)	–	–	–	–	<1	<1	<1
Civil platform (R. Shaikhutdinov)	1	<1	1	1	<1	1	<1
Motherland (A. Zhuravlev)	1	1	1	1	<1	1	<1
Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice (E. Artyukh)	–	–	–	–	<1	<1	<1
Patriots of Russia (G. Semigin)	1	<1	<1	<1	1	<1	<1
Other	2	2	1	1	1	<1	<1
Ruined (a) / carried away (la) the ballot	–	2	2	3	2	3	2

* For the purposes of the experiment, the respondent on the card, among the list of real parties, was also offered a fictitious one, which received 0.3% of the votes from all respondents.

INTERESTS OF WHAT SECTIONS OF THE POPULATION DO THE FOLLOWING PARTIES EXPRESS, IN YOUR VIEW?

	CPRF	UNITED RUSSIA	LDPR	JUST RUSSIA	APPLE	PARNASSUS
	6	30	9	6	12	12
	6	23	9	6	9	7
	8	26	11	7	7	5
	3	28	7	4	2	1
Cultural and scientific elite	7	8	7	8	7	2
	15	13	16	13	6	3
	17	8	11	15	7	3
	31	8	17	15	3	2
	23	3	9	10	2	1
Everyone without exception	15	25	19	14	8	5
Difficult to answer	24	15	27	37	55	71

Data in dynamics

INTERESTS OF WHAT SECTIONS OF THE POPULATION, IN YOUR VIEW, UNITED RUSSIA EXPRESSES? (multiple answers possible)

	Jun.03	Jan.04	Oct.07	Jul.11	Jul.16
"Oligarchs", bankers, big businessmen	18	18	21	40	30
“Siloviki”: employees of special services, the army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	12	22	16	32	28
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	16	19	20	34	26
Everyone without exception	5	14	16	20	25
"Director's corps": heads of large enterprises	15	19	19	32	23
“Middle class”: people with incomes above average	17	22	15	16	13
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	10	11	12	12	8
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, rural workers	16	19	15	11	8
Cultural and scientific elite	4	5	7	6	8
	5	5	4	3	3
Difficult to answer	23	13	20	10	15

WHAT INTERESTS OF THE POPULATION EXPRESSES, IN YOUR VIEW, CPRF? (multiple answers possible)

	Jun.03	Jan.04	Oct.07	Jul.11	Jul.16
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, rural workers	37	39	26	40	31
The poorest segments of the population, the unemployed, the disadvantaged people	29	27	20	30	23
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	15	16	11	20	17
“Middle class”: people with incomes above average	10	12	8	14	15
Everyone without exception	4	6	9	8	15
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	6	8	4	7	8
Cultural and scientific elite	2	3	3	4	7
"Director's corps": heads of large enterprises	5	5	5	6	6
"Oligarchs", bankers, big businessmen	4	7	5	6	6
“Siloviki”: employees of special services, the army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	2	3	3	3	3
Difficult to answer	22	21	38	23	24

INTERESTS OF WHAT SECTIONS OF THE POPULATION IS THE LDPR EXPRESSING, IN YOUR VIEW? (multiple answers possible)

	Jun.03	Jan.04	Oct.07	Jul.11	Jul.16
Everyone without exception	4	9	9	14	19
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, rural workers	9	22	9	17	17
“Middle class”: people with incomes above average	9	15	10	15	16
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	12	11	12	13	11
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	4	8	4	10	11
"Oligarchs", bankers, big businessmen	13	8	13	14	9
"Director's corps": heads of large enterprises	10	9	9	10	9
The poorest segments of the population, the unemployed, the disadvantaged people	5	14	5	9	9
“Siloviki”: employees of special services, the army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	10	12	6	7	7
Cultural and scientific elite	3	3	3	5	7
Difficult to answer	39	29	44	26	27

INTERESTS OF WHAT SECTIONS OF THE POPULATION EXPRESSES, IN YOUR VIEW, A JUST RUSSIA? (multiple answers possible)

	Jan.04	Oct.07	Jul.11	Jul.16
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, rural workers	29	14	19	15
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	15	8	18	15
Everyone without exception	9	7	9	14
“Middle class”: people with incomes above average	15	10	15	13
The poorest segments of the population, the unemployed, the disadvantaged people	15	8	8	10
Cultural and scientific elite	5	4	9	8
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	4	9	9	7
"Director's corps": heads of large enterprises	3	8	9	6
"Oligarchs", bankers, big businessmen	3	7	7	6
“Siloviki”: employees of special services, the army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	7	4	3	4
Difficult to answer	34	47	37	37

INTERESTS OF WHAT POPULATION SECTIONS, IN YOUR VIEW, PARNAS EXPRESSES? (multiple answers possible)

	Jul.11	Jul.16
"Oligarchs", bankers, big businessmen	8	12
"Director's corps": heads of large enterprises	4	7
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	3	5
Everyone without exception	3	5
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	2	3
“Middle class”: people with incomes above average	2	3
Cultural and scientific elite	1	2
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, rural workers	2	2
The poorest, the unemployed, the disadvantaged people	1	1
“Siloviki”: employees of special services, the army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	1	1
Difficult to answer	79	71

INTERESTS OF WHAT SECTIONS OF THE POPULATION EXPRESSES, IN YOUR VIEW, APPLE? (multiple answers possible)

	Jun.03	Jan.04	Oct.07	Jul.11	Jul.16
Oligarchs”, bankers, big businessmen	9	13	11	10	12
"Director's corps": heads of large enterprises	9	10	9	5	9
Everyone without exception	2	4	4	5	8
Federal and regional officials, bureaucracy	8	8	7	5	7
Cultural and scientific elite	16	19	12	11	7
Intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, ordinary specialists	26	29	11	11	7
“Middle class”: people with incomes above average	19	21	10	7	6
"Ordinary people": employees, workers, rural workers	7	10	3	3	3
“Siloviki”: employees of special services, the army, the Ministry of Internal Affairs	3	6	3	3	2 Vkontakte

With every day that Russia approaches the September 18 elections, new details appear in the picture clarifying the situation of who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016. If earlier the forecast for the outcome of the vote was clear ─ United Russia and its leaders are again at the helm ─, today the number of helmsmen in state power may change. According to anonymous opinion polls, young people and middle-aged people more often began to give preference to the Liberal Democratic Party. Older people, by tradition, support the Communist Party. Oppositionists are finding fewer and fewer sympathizers. The Parnassus party is gaining popularity every week, while the leader and majority party United Russia has lost part of the electorate due to the decline in the popularity of its leader Dmitry Medvedev. According to experts, most of the Duma chairs will, of course, go to United Russia, but for the first time their percentage will be reduced. Due to changes in the 2016 election procedure and voting for half of the candidates in single-member districts (in fact, they will vote for the individual), the final election result on September 18 may come as a surprise to everyone.

Who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016 ─ expert opinion

Today, the alignment of forces in the political arena of Russia suggests that the State Duma, elected on September 18, 2016, will be "three-party". "Fair Russia", quite a bit behind the three leaders of the United Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party, is constantly balancing on the threshold of a five percent barrier. Moreover, with the growing popularity of the Liberal Democratic Party, the balance was slightly upset. "Fair Russia" has lost a percentage of the voters who support it. Opposition parties, according to experts and political scientists, are likely to get into the State Duma only thanks to deputies elected in single-mandate districts. Today, outsider parties should think about how to most effectively campaign for their nominees in the constituencies. Given the high support of their candidates, the faction of each of the minority parties will increase. Thus, they will also be able to influence the outcome of further votes in the Duma and the adoption of a ban on laws and amendments to them. Will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016, according to expartes, United Russia again. The "silver" medalist of the race may change: the Liberal Democratic Party and its permanent leader Vladimir Volfovich Zhirinovsky are doing everything possible to win. Gennady Andreevich Zyuganov, who also heads his party (KPRF) for many years, provides his comrades with support. Communist Party, Liberal Democratic Party and United Russia are the top three.

Who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016 ─ forecast

You do not need to be an experienced political scientist to predict the victory of parties in the elections to the State Duma. In 2016, by a wide margin from their rivals and future associates and colleagues, United Russia is in the lead. However, it is difficult to predict the second and third seats in the lower house of the Russian parliament before September itself. Even in winter, the Communists (KPRF) followed the United Russia. Today, the Liberal Democratic Party has bypassed them in this segment of the distance before the elections. The deputies elected to the State Duma of the seventh convocation will have a hard time. The previous composition of the Duma began its work under a more favorable political and economic situation both in the country and in the world as a whole. There has not yet been a Ukrainian Maidan, which entailed a quick decision by the Crimeans to return to Russia. There was no civil war in Ukraine yet. Russia was neither under economic sanctions nor under political pressure. Now the deputies elected by the people will have a harder time than all the compositions of the State Duma, ever elected. The country needs to be pulled out of the economic crisis. Political games will need to learn to ignore. Deputies should become more loyal and wiser. Most likely, the upcoming presidential elections in the United States will also have a strong influence on the situation in the world and in Russia. In the United States, a new, 45th head of state will appear in November, and this person will be extraordinary. Whomever Russia and the Duma deputies have to deal with - with the woman wife of the ex-president of the country or a billionaire who is clearly interested in the growth of personal popularity, the working conditions of the chosen ones from the people will be non-standard.

Who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016 ─ opinion poll

While Western political scientists are predicting a new revolution in Russia in 2017, sociologists are conducting independent surveys of the population. They ask people on the streets who they are going to vote for on September 18th. According to updated data from opinion polls conducted in June 2016, 44% of Russian citizens decided to vote accurately in the 2016 elections. Some of them are still hesitant, as they are not sure that their decision can affect the outcome of the election campaign. At the same time, United Russia has already lost 7-8% in the rating, and it does not feel so confident about the winners. The originally planned vacations of the deputies of the Duma of the 6th convocation have been canceled: some of the old people's deputies will again claim the right to work in the lower house of the Russian parliament.

Of course, the question of who will win the elections to the State Duma in 2016 in any, even a greatly changed alignment of political forces, has already been resolved: United Russia will win the majority. V. Zhirinovsky and the LDPR party, by supporting the United Russia, actually add to themselves "percentage of popularity." Thus, according to the latest opinion polls, the opinion of experts and forecasts, only three parties - ER, LDPR and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - will enter the Duma.