79% of Russians know or have heard about the elections scheduled for September. 71% of respondents intend to go to vote, while 43% say that they will "absolutely" come to the polls. Between half and three-quarters of respondents believe that the parties present in the Duma today will go there again. Few give chances to other parties. At the same time, 34% of our fellow citizens want to see new parties in the State Duma (among highly educated young people - 48%), do not want to - 45%.

download data

FOMnibus is a representative survey of the population aged 18 and over. The survey involved 1500 respondents - residents of 104 urban and rural settlements in 53 subjects of the Russian Federation. Face-to-face interviews were held at the place of residence of the respondents. The statistical error does not exceed 3.6%.

Do you know, have you heard or are you hearing now for the first time that elections to the State Duma will be held in September of this year?

DATA IN % OF SURVEYS

Please specify: will you personally take part or not take part in the elections of the State Duma deputies?

DATA IN % OF SURVEYS

Card, one answer

	February 14, 2016	April 17, 2016	May 22, 2016	June 5, 2016	June 19, 2016	July 3, 2016	July 17, 2016	July 24, 2016	July 31, 2016
I definitely won't participate.	15	14	14	15	16	13	16	15	12
I probably won't participate.	10	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	5
Rather not accept than participate	8	6	5	6	6	5	5	5	5
I'd rather take than not take part	13	11	13	14	14	15	12	12	11
I will most likely participate.	16	17	19	16	14	16	18	17	17
I will definitely attend	27	38	34	35	36	37	35	38	43
Haven't decided yet, hard to answer	12	8	9	8	8	9	9	8	6

The State Duma will include only those parties that receive at least 5% of the votes in the elections. What do you think, which of the listed parties will receive at least 5% of the votes in the elections and become part of the State Duma?

DATA IN % OF SURVEYS

Card, any number of answers

Four parties are now represented in the State Duma: United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and Just Russia. What do you think will be better: if after the elections all these parties remain in the Duma, or if some of them do not enter the Duma?

DATA IN % OF SURVEYS

Which or which of these parties would you not like to see in the new Duma?

DATA IN % OF SURVEYS

The question was asked by those who believe that it would be better if some of the parties represented in the Duma did not get into the Duma of a new convocation, 19% of respondents answered. Card, any number of answers

And what, in your opinion, will be better: if some new parties appear in the Duma after the elections, which are not represented in it now, or if there are no new parties in the Duma?

DATA IN % OF GROUPS

Data source.

It is with sadness that I publish the results of our latest survey. We, as promised, made the Moscow poll completely identical.

Each card has three results for your convenience: federal in June, federal in July and Moscow.

And sadly, because Moscow gives democratic parties 15-20% of the total number of votes that they can get in the country at all. The result in Moscow is absolutely critical from the point of view of passing any barriers.

The focus of the survey is in the study of YABLOKO, PARNAS and the Party of Growth, as well as their leaders.

See what happens:

Awareness of the upcoming elections in Moscow is good.

The first key difference with the rest of the country is that Muscovites don't want to go to the polls. The percentage of “definitely going” is much lower, the percentage of “definitely not going” is higher than in Russia.

I doubt that this is due to the special laziness of Muscovites, most likely they are simply better informed and feel more acutely that the elections are not real.

The second key difference between Moscow and Russia is that United Russia's rating here is almost two times lower.

However (see above about “sadly”) this does not add anything to the democratic orientation of the parties. APPLE - 2%, PARNAS - 1%.

The Growth Party does not exist at all. But there are many more "undecided". Muscovites don't want to vote for EdRo, but they don't know who to vote for.

You can try to throw out the undecided and calculate the party ratings among those who will definitely go to vote and have made their choice. I repeat that this can be done with a very big stretch, because the votes of the undecided will not necessarily be distributed in the same way as the votes of those who know who they will vote for. But if this is done, then the pre-election alignment looks like this:

While YABLOKO has a chance to gain only 5% in Moscow, PARNAS - 2%. This means results around two and one percent in the whole country.

Scroll through the slides to see the personal ratings of the leaders of YABLOKO, PARNAS and the Party of Growth. In general, Moscow and Russia have a similar picture. We see that Muscovites are somewhat more informed about democratic politicians, they get to know them better - but this awareness adds not only the rating, but also the anti-rating (here it is clear - television works). This is especially noticeable on Mikhail Kasyanov's slide.

What I want to say about the results of the survey. Or rather, with what I want to address PARNAS and YABLOKO, the parties on which side I have my sympathies:

- The election campaign, my friends. Where is she? The election is less than a month away, and I can't see THE SMALLEST trace of your election campaigns point-blank. I see some single-mandate members (and they, as it should be for single-mandate members, hide their party affiliation in every possible way), but I don’t see your party campaigns.

So nothing will work. You are probably thinking: Moscow does not like EP, so the people will automatically incur votes for us. Forget it. It doesn't work that way, and you yourself have seen it many times. In 2003, in 2007, in 2011. We need to somehow be present in the political field. We all expect this from you.

26 days before the vote. This is already very difficult, but you can still try and make a breakthrough. Attract party activists, volunteers. Take to the streets. Make an important statement. To work, that is, as the party is supposed to, a month before the elections.

In general, I will notice, everything is very strange. Deputies are being elected for the next 5 years, and there are almost no traces of elections on the streets. Everything is clear to me with the Communist Party and the SR, but the Democrats, then?

Elections will become elections when we achieve the admission of real participants to them.

PS
FBK thanks all the volunteers who help us with surveys. Thanks to you, we have a sociology that can be trusted.

Pre-election congresses were held in the country, the election campaign began. Well, the sociological service of the FBK decided to make the first poll in this political season with party ratings.

You yourself would like to know with what numbers this campaign begins, and you will probably be interested in unbiased sociology.

Not to say that everyone is in a big excitement about the upcoming elections, although 56% of citizens know for sure that there will be elections to the State Duma in the fall:

Many opinion polls traditionally show a high turnout, and this one was no exception. In 2011, the official turnout was about 60%, and the real turnout, cleared of stuffing, is probably around 50%.

Almost half of the voters have not decided who they will vote for. These "undecided" votes will be distributed among the parties, in the end, not necessarily in the same proportion as the votes of those voters who already confidently declare support for one or another party. The practice of past years shows that the result of United Russia falls closer to the elections.

Overall, the results of our survey turned out to be quite close to the results of the last Levada Center poll, except that they predict a very low turnout.

If we make an adjustment for the difference in turnout, then all the interesting things are the same:

LDPR contests second place with communists;

SR is balancing on the verge of passing the barrier;

Non-parliamentary parties do not even come close to becoming parliamentary.

However, our survey was still on the eve of the congresses. Now we want to do another one and examine the party rankings more carefully in terms of clarity about who is on the lists. Find out who people generally know of those who lead their parties.

Therefore, we are recruiting volunteers who will help us with this survey. As usual: with us training and strict adherence to the most advanced sociological methods, with you - conscientious work under the supervision of experienced people.

Come, help us supply citizens with the necessary sociological data and see for yourself that we have the most honest data.

A week before the election, sociological services predict that four parties will overcome the 5% threshold. Voting results may be unexpected, as a sixth of voters still have not decided on their choice

Monday, September 12 is the last day sociological services can publishmeasurements of public opinion before the State Duma elections. The law prohibits publication of the results of public opinion polls and forecasts of election results within five days before election day (September 18), as well as on election day.

Undecided Party

The latest data published by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) and the Levada Center show that four parties overcome the five percent threshold for entering the Duma: “ United Russia”, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Just Russia. According to the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), only three parties will overcome this barrier - only 4% of those polled by the FOM are ready to vote for A Just Russia. Willingness to vote for all other parties, including Yabloko, the Party of Growth, PARNAS, was expressed by 1% of the respondents.

According to the FOM, 44% will definitely take part in the elections, another 30% are inclined to vote (the last poll was conducted on September 3-4, 3,000 respondents were polled in 73 subjects of the Russian Federation). Data from the Levada Center (the last poll published on August 26-29 in 48 regions, polled 1,600 people) shows less enthusiasm of voters: 20% say they will definitely go to vote, another 28% are inclined to vote.

During the election campaign, the number of undecided in their choice has sharply increased. 14.6% of VTsIOM respondents (the latest data was published on September 4, 1,600 people in 42 regions were polled) say they do not know which party they will vote for. In April, only 8% of respondents could not answer the question about electoral preferences. At FOM, 16% of respondents found it difficult to choose, in April there were 11%. This is the highest rate of voter uncertainty since 2011.

party with the president

Strong fluctuations in the last week shows the rating of "United Russia". ​ ​According to the FOM, the share of Russians who are ready to vote for United Russia is 41%. On August 28, the FOM reported that 44% of Russians polled declared support for the party in power. Since January 2016, the party's rating in the FOM data has decreased by 9%. The number of Russians who definitely do not trust United Russia has grown by 2% (from 12% to 14%) and negatively assess the party's activities (from 25% to 27%). The most positive attitude towards United Russia is rural residents and citizens without income, it follows from the survey data.

According to VTsIOM , 39.3% are ready to vote for the ruling party. In mid-August about the desire to vote United Russia 44% of Russians told, in April there were 47.6% A sharp drop in the United Russia rating in early September Levada Center. The number of citizens who are ready to vote for the ruling party in the State Duma elections decreased in August from 39 to 31% of respondents, sociologists reported.

United Russia's rating is not decreasing, it behaves differently in different regions, Vyacheslav Volodin, the first deputy head of the presidential administration, commented at a meeting with political scientists last week (heads the regional group of United Russia). The trend is "multi-vector", he assured. “In a number of territories it [the trend] is flat, in a number of territories, including St. Petersburg, it is declining, in some territories, including Moscow, it is growing,” Volodin classified. The fall is taking place in those regions where United Russia did not nominate its candidates in single-mandate districts, yielding them to the opposition, a Kremlin official. A week before the Duma elections United Russia decided to launch the last wave of campaigning, in which they will try to combine the rating of the president with the rating of the party, . And on September 10, a week before the election, President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the leader of the list of United Russia members, looked at an Orthodox church together, took a boat trip on Lake Ilmen and talked with fishermen.

The rating of President Vladimir Putin is unshakable - 82% in August (Levada Center, in June-July - 81-82%). VTsIOM shows a decrease in the rating of trust in the president: 50.2% of respondents said they had trust, in early August there were 56%. Support for the prime minister, according to the Levada Center, fell from 55% in July to 48% in August. VTsIOM, on the contrary, shows an increase in confidence in the prime minister: 9.3% of those who trust in September against 10.1% in early August.

Stability

The ratings of other parties show lesser dynamics. According to the FOM, the number of those wishing to vote for the Liberal Democratic Party remained the same - 11%, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation gained 1% (up to 9%) during this time, and A Just Russia lost 1% (up to 4%). Decreased the number of those who decided not to go to the polls, from 14 to 13%. VTsIOM data show a slight increase in the rating of communists: up to 8.7% from 7.7% (at the beginning of the year there were 10% ready to vote for the Communist Party). The rating of the Liberal Democratic Party fell from 12.2 to 10.4%, 5.3% of respondents are ready to vote for A Just Russia (at the beginning of the year there were 5.6%, the peak of sympathy for the Socialist-Revolutionaries came in July, when they were ready to vote for the party vote 7.9% of the respondents). The Levada Center showed a stable rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, but the latest poll data for the first time demonstrated the passage of the five percent barrier.

The current data of sociologists is closer to reality than the forecasts before the last Duma elections, political scientist Alexei Makarkin believes. “Those elections were scandalous, there were many questions to them. Now everything is being done to avoid scandals. However, sociology cannot cover everything - the week before the elections will be decisive, ”the expert argues. According to Makarkin, the fact that a large part of the population makes decisions only at polling stations can change the situation. In addition, sociologists record an increase in the recognition of small parties. “Who will be able to attract undecided voters, we have yet to find out,” the political scientist concludes.

The procedure will be more competitive, but the results will remain the same

Although looking at the party ratings, the results of the September elections to the State Duma seem predetermined, there is still some intrigue in them. There are four main questions so far: how much United Russia will score, will the communists hold on to the traditional second place, will A Just Russia overcome the barrier, and will one of the non-parliamentary parties get close to the coveted 5%.

Sociology: no surprises

This will be an unusual election, promises VTsIOM General Director Valery Fedorov - according to a mixed system, with a new division of districts, for the first time in September and for the first time since 1999 - in a downward phase business cycle. It will be possible to say something definite about the expected results only at the end of August, Fedorov believes. This is another distinguishing feature the next elections, because usually 3 months before the elections, the election campaign is already in full swing, and you can do quite accurate forecasts he explains. Now, two-thirds of voters do not even know when the elections will take place, and in fact, a full-scale campaign will begin after the end of the holiday season and will last only 3-4 weeks. Considering all this, VTsIOM does not yet make public forecasts, but a week ago it opened the so-called electoral forecast market on its website, where anyone can “bet” on one or another outcome of the elections ( the game is on"of interest"). So far, United Russia is leading the market with a score of about 51%.

According to research by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), the proportion of those who promise to vote for United Russia out of those who have made their choice is approximately 60%. But some call it simply because it is "on the ear," while others are afraid to declare sympathy for other parties, argues leading FOM analyst Grigory Kertman. Given this, in his opinion, it can be assumed that if the situation in the country does not change significantly, the party in power can count on about 50% of the vote. According to the latest surveys by the Levada Center, there is a trend towards a decrease in the ratings of United Russia, says Alexei Grazhdankin, deputy director of the center: now 55% of active voters (those who intend to go to the polls and have made their choice) are ready to support it. If there are no serious shocks, the situation is likely to be mothballed until the end of the summer, and then the ratings of the ruling party may traditionally go down, he believes. Although, due to the "blurred" nature of the campaign during the holidays, such a strong decline as in 2011 may not happen.

If we talk about the second place, now it seems that the LDPR has a good chance to compete for it, Fedorov believes - also because its leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky has become a more respectable politician and some of the voters whom he used to scare away will probably vote for him . However, in the end, more people always vote for the Communists than they admit in the polls, and besides, even liberal-minded voters who do not want to vote for an ideologically close, but not passing candidate, can vote for the Communist Party, Fedorov emphasizes. Therefore, his forecast - the Communist Party will remain second. There will certainly be competition for second place, Kertman believes, in Lately The ratings of the Communist Party and the Liberal Democratic Party are almost the same. But the LDPR electorate is less disciplined, while the Communist Party, on the contrary, is the most obligatory. Therefore, the Communists have a stronger position, although much will depend on the coming months: foreign policy upheavals can strengthen the position of the Liberal Democrats, and economic shocks - the Communists, Kertman explains. Judging by the data of the Levada Center, the chances of the Liberal Democratic Party to “take away” the 2nd place from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation are still small, Grazhdankin agrees: “The ratings of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation have been stable around 18% over the past six months. Although everything will be decided recent weeks before the elections. We remember that in 1993 the ratings of the Liberal Democratic Party "rushed" up precisely during this period.

As regards the prospects of the Socialist-Revolutionaries, the opinions of sociologists differed. Fedorov is confident that they will overcome the barrier: this is the party with the lowest anti-rating, many opposition-minded voters who are afraid of extremes tend to choose it. But the SRs are always at risk because of the vague image, Kertman warns. With a bright campaign of any of the “small” parties, it is A Just Russia that is especially vulnerable and will lose votes, he believes. The ratings of Mironov's party fluctuate at the level of 5%, and, apparently, it is unlikely to be able to offer something particularly attractive to voters in the remaining 3 months, so it is not guaranteed to enter the Duma, Grazhdankin believes.

But as for the non-parliamentary parties, the experts are unanimous: none of them has a chance to gain 5%. Yabloko, as the only liberal organization visible to voters throughout the country, can compete for 3%, Fedorov believes: “It is, of course, not the Apple of the political market, but still a well-recognized brand.” The chances of Yabloko even by 3% still look negligible, objects Kertman. But the situation could change if neither Parnassus nor the Party of Growth achieve anything, and Yabloko effectively remains the only prominent party to the right of the center, he believes. Grazhdankin agrees that Yabloko can’t reach 3%: it also has the highest anti-rating (19% of respondents say they don’t want to vote for the party), and it is hardly possible to increase the number of adherents by several times over the remaining time.

Political technology: it all depends on the scenario

Political scientists and sociologists generally agree, although they stipulate that much depends on the nature of the campaign.

The question is whether there will still be a mood in the regions for legitimacy or strengthening of administration, including by appearing at the head of regional lists of governors, Mikhail Vinogradov says: “A figure of more than 50% would not be useful for United Russia, and not the fact that it would be useful for the legitimacy of the elections. On the other hand, votes that are from United Russia in recent months they leave, no one picks them up - the increase in the rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and other parties turns out to be insignificant.

Judging by sociology, United Russia will gain its 50%, Konstantin Kalachev believes: “There will be party-political mobilization, somewhere administrative resources will be included, no matter how they talk about honesty, openness and competitiveness.” In his opinion, United Russia has not yet used all its resources, because voters will still vote not for Medvedev, but for United Russia as a political resource of the president and, in fact, for Putin.

In 2011, United Russia’s main fall happened at the very end of the campaign period, reminds Alexander Pozhalov, but now the elections are not held at the beginning of winter, when depressive moods are growing, but in the second half of September: “If there are major reasons for discontent and they will be actively won back opposition in early September, then a drop is possible, but 43-45% is the minimum that United Russia should have.”

Society is out of balance: on the one hand, people still believe Putin, on the other, they understand that something is going wrong in the country, says Abbas Gallyamov. Therefore, the result of the party in power directly depends on the scenario of the campaign, he believes: “If it follows an inertial scenario, people will be disappointed and the turnout will drop significantly. In this case, the result of "United Russia" may exceed 50% - due to the disciplined turnout of a loyal rural voter. If the campaign turns out to be bright, the result of United Russia will fall well below 50%.

As for the second place of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, experts are almost unanimous. Although much here is in the hands of the communists themselves, Vinogradov stipulates: “The question is whether a serious struggle will unfold for the minds of voters, or everything will be quite neat, without radicalization, so as not to strain partners in power. That is, will there be a radicalization of the agenda in order to attract those who do not go to the elections, or will the fear of spilling today's assets turn out to be stronger. So far, judging by their list, the communists are not in the mood to surprise themselves and the voters, the expert believes.

We always choose differently

On September 8, 2016, the seventh elections to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly will be held Russian Federation. What has changed from previous campaigns?
Adopted in 2014, the presidential version of the law “On Elections of State Duma Deputies” provides for their election under a mixed system, when half of the 450 seats are given to single-mandate members – for the first time since 2003, reminds political scientist Arkady Lyubarev. At the same time, the threshold for parties was reduced from 7 to 5%.
14 parties that won more than 3% of the vote in the previous Duma elections or managed to get a party list into at least one regional legislature can freely participate in the elections. The rest need to collect 200,000 signatures, but not more than 7,000 in one subject.
Only seven parties took part in the 2011 elections, since since 2007 parties with less than 50,000 members and branches in less than half of the regions have been liquidated. But in 2012, a change was made to the law on parties to reduce their minimum number to 500 people. This theoretically allows 74 parties to take part in the 2016 elections. Those who have received parliamentary privileges will certainly participate, and only a few of the rest will participate, Lyubarev believes.
For self-nominees, compared to 2003, several factors have appeared that complicate participation in elections, he continues. Previously, they could register on a pledge, and in the case of collecting signatures, 1% of the signatures of the district residents were required. Now - 3% of signatures. At the same time, the permissible percentage of marriage has been reduced from 25 to 5%, in addition, it is required to notarize data on signature collectors. A big problem will also be that due to the postponement of the campaign to the summer, vacationers will not hear or see the campaigning of single-mandate members, Lyubarev believes.
A number of new bans also came into effect. Thus, it will not be possible to use images of people who are not candidates in campaigning. People with a conviction for serious crimes will not be able to be nominated for the State Duma until 10 years have passed from the date of removal or repayment of the conviction. In addition, NGOs recognized as foreign agents (such as the Golos movement) are prohibited from any participation in the electoral process. Finally, it will be more difficult for journalists and observers. Media representatives now need to be accredited in advance to work in elections. Lists of observers must also be submitted in advance - three days in advance, and one person can be an observer at no more than one polling station. Well, for those who violate the procedure for the work of the election commission or interfere with voting (whether journalists or observers), a fine is provided - from 2,000 to 50,000 rubles.

Hypothetically, a struggle between the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the LDPR is possible, Kalachev admits: “Zhirinovsky is a man who knows how to turn on the turbo mode at the last moment. And the communists' flirting with the image of Stalin may alienate some of the townspeople who voted last time for the Communist Party on the principle of "if only not for United Russia." But the electoral core of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is larger, and there are also chances for second place, he explains.

The second place will be taken by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and how far it will break away from the LDPR depends on the communists themselves, Gallyamov is sure. If they are able to interest peripheral voters, they will easily gain 20%, if not, they will take about 12-13%.

Pozhalov is also confident that the current alignment will continue, primarily because the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has a more disciplined electorate, while the potential LDPR voter is much less active. And although the Liberal Democratic Party in many regions is considered by voters as a “second choice party” (it is called when answering the question “Who would you vote for if your party does not participate in the elections?”), It is unlikely to receive more than 15-16% . And the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, even remaining at the level of past results, will gain about 17-19%. But the communists are not in danger of a breakthrough, the expert adds: “I do not see them accumulating voices dissatisfied with the socio-economic situation in the regions. In addition, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has party old-timers and in some places deputies and sponsors in the list of passing places, and young communists are still pushed aside. This demotivates party members to conduct an active campaign in the regions.”

As for the Socialist-Revolutionaries, their chances of overcoming the barrier are quite high, although now their rating is “on the verge of passing,” and the party has a lot of problems with managing the election campaign, with the popularity of leaders, and with throwing around in search of their agenda, Kalachev notes. How much the Socialist-Revolutionaries take will depend not on them, but on their rivals: if they conduct weak campaigns, then the disappointed voter will vote en masse for A Just Russia, Gallyamov believes. If the competitors perform successfully, then the Social Revolutionaries may not overcome the five percent barrier, he admits. The Socialist-Revolutionaries will go to the brink, their strong point is the single-members, behind whom in some regions there are Moscow or St. Petersburg sponsors, adds Pozhalov. But 8-10% is the ceiling for them, but on this moment - 7-8%.

Finally, experts do not expect surprises from non-parliamentary parties - at best, some of them will compete for 3% of the votes, giving parliamentary benefits and the right to state funding.

With Yabloko, the question is whether they will position themselves as the main opposition force or decide to demonstrate to the authorities that they are controlled, moderate oppositionists, Vinogradov believes: last years they went in the direction of moderation, because the contradictions with the more protesting voters and political forces turned out to be more important than the interspecies contradictions with the loyalists. Yabloko is gaining momentum and, given the crisis in Parnassus, it can accumulate a protest voter, but it will not overcome the barrier, Kalachev agrees. The Party of Growth and Motherland also have the opportunity to gain 3% growth, although the chances for this are slim, he says. If there had been a trend towards the growth of the popularity of small parties, it would have already manifested itself by the end of spring, Pozhalov explains. He considers the first place directed by Alexander Sokurov in the St. Petersburg group "Apple" to be the right step, which will attract the city's intelligentsia to the elections. But this is enough for 3%, but not for 5%. Pozhalov calls Motherland a dark horse, which, given its focus on the military-industrial complex and the Ministry of Defense, can mobilize a patriotic electorate at the last moment, but even this, according to the expert, will allow fighting for only 3%.

Party lists: changing the places of terms

Judging by the personal composition of party lists, the Duma will be renewed by more than half in September. True, there are more than 50% of acting deputies among the candidates, but not everyone will be able to be re-elected, including due to the peculiarities of compiling the lists.

Each of them has a federal part, which can include no more than 10 people. As a rule, it is filled with the most valuable party members, since in case of overcoming the barrier, all ten are guaranteed to get into the Duma. So far, there are only two exceptions - United Russia's list is single-handedly headed by its chairman, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, while A Just Russia is single-handedly led to the polls by its leader Sergei Mironov.

In this case, the list should be divided into at least 35 regional groups. Which of the regional lists will end up in the Duma directly depends on the number of voters who voted for the party in a particular territory. And here it is not percentages that play a role, but the absolute number of votes. Therefore, for example, if the turnout on September 18 will be, as in 2011, about 60% and about 50% will vote for United Russia in the whole country, then, say, Adygea, even with a 90% vote for United Russia, will receive only one mandate, and Moscow with 40% - more than a dozen.

Small groups of "United Russia" have been created only in the republics of the North Caucasus, and most of the 36 regional groups unite several constituent entities of the Federation. There, United Russia will have the first 3-4 places on average, and if the list is headed by a "locomotive" (19 governors plus the first deputy head of the presidential administration, Vyacheslav Volodin), then all five.

Among those whose re-election is guaranteed even with an incredible 30% of the votes are State Duma Chairman Sergei Naryshkin and all his deputies - United Russia (Alexander Zhukov, Andrey Isaev, faction leader Vladimir Vasiliev and secretary of the party's general council Sergei Neverov), as well as most of the chairmen of the Duma committees, taking first or second places in their groups: Irina Yarovaya, Pavel Krasheninnikov, Vyacheslav Nikonov, Andrey Makarov, Stanislav Govorukhin (No. 2 in Moscow). Only the chairman of the constitutional committee, Vladimir Pligin, was unlucky, who, due to the 4th place in the primaries, ended up in the St. Petersburg list only in the fifth “semi-passing” position. The next Duma will definitely not include the chairman of the international committee, Alexei Pushkov, who, along with 50 other current deputies, lost the primaries and was not included in the lists. But a few well-known new faces are guaranteed to appear - in particular, airborne commander Vladimir Shamanov (No. 1 in the list for the Orenburg, Samara and Ulyanovsk regions), "D'Artagnan's son" Sergei Boyarsky (No. 2 in St. Petersburg) and editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Culture" Elena Yampolskaya (No. 1 in the Kurgan and Chelyabinsk regions).

According to a similar principle, 37 groups were built by the Communist Party. The most valuable personnel, including Gennady Zyuganov, his first deputy Ivan Melnikov, Svetlana Savitskaya and Zhores Alferov, entered the federal part. Other members of the party leadership and chairmen of the Duma committees (Vadim Solovyov, Valery Rashkin, Nikolai Kharitonov, Vladimir Komoyedov, Sergei Gavrilov) took first place in the groups (although, as a rule, second places will also be passed). In addition, the Communists this time even have two of their own "locomotives" - Governor Sergei Levchenko in Irkutsk and Mayor Anatoly Lokot in Novosibirsk.

A Just Russia also placed the most notable acting deputies at the head of its 50 groups, including Oleg Shein (Astrakhan), Oleg Nilov (St. Petersburg), Alexander Burkov (Sverdlovsk region), Valery Gartung (Chelyabinsk). In addition, several new faces appeared on the first lines - for example, the famous football player and coach Valery Gazzaev ( North Caucasus) and publicist Mikhail Delyagin (Krasnoyarsk). The Social Revolutionaries divided Moscow into three groups, which were headed by Galina Khovanskaya, chairman of the State Duma committee on housing and communal services, well-known TV journalist Roman Babayan and intellectual Anatoly Wasserman. True, with the expected result on party lists no higher than 10%, second places in groups will most often turn out to be impassable, therefore, say, deputy chairmen of the Duma committees Andrei Tumanov and Olga Krasilnikova have a chance to get on the list.

Well, for the Liberal Democrats, not even all the first places will be passable, since the Liberal Democratic Party has divided its list into as many as 135 regional groups. Basically, each of them has only two or three candidates, and several large groups have been created on the traditionally fruitful for the party Far East, as well as in Moscow and the Moscow region, where even a relatively low result in percentage terms will be quite significant in absolute terms. Among the most likely candidates for re-election are the authors of high-profile legislative initiatives of the outgoing convocation: Andrey Lugovoi, who introduced the law on NGOs - foreign agents ( Krasnodar region) and the author of the law on reducing the foreign share in the media to 20% Vadim Dengin (Bryansk region).

Single-member constituencies: minimum competition

Elections in single-mandate constituencies are held in one round, that is, victory requires not an absolute, but a relative majority of votes. Therefore, with a large number of candidates and high competition, it is possible to get into the Duma even, for example, with 20% of the votes. But there will be few truly competitive constituencies in these elections - no more than a quarter, Abbas Gallyamov believes: "The political clearing has been cleared, there are not so many people who are ready to take risks, coming into conflict with the authorities."

However, in some places it will be possible to run without entering into such a conflict - these are the territories where United Russia agreed not to nominate their candidates in the framework of the so-called inter-factional agreement on the division of districts. Initially, the party in power was ready to allocate 10 such districts to each of the three opposition Duma parties, but in the end, instead of 30, only 18 remained.

In seven districts, space has been "cleared" for the Socialist-Revolutionaries. In particular, chairmen of the Duma committees Galina Khovanskaya, Leonid Levin and Anatoly Aksakov, as well as deputy actress Elena Drapeko will not have United Russia competitors (see table). True, the party members themselves stipulate that this does not yet mean the automatic victory of their candidates. For example, it will not be easy for Khovanskaya if strong candidates from the non-systemic opposition are nominated in her constituency, because “in Moscow, the command was given to hold elections without violations,” says a source in the party leadership.

The Liberal Democratic Party will receive four constituencies from United Russia, which will include, for example, faction chairman Alexei Didenko and chairman of the health committee Sergei Furgal. But Yaroslav Nilov, chairman of the committee on public associations, did not find an agreed-upon district, and he will have to compete in Moscow with Vyacheslav Lysakov, a prominent United Russia member from the ONF.

United Russia liberated three districts for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation - in the Kuban for Nikolai Kharitonov, in Omsk for Oleg Smolin and in St. Petersburg for film director Vladimir Bortko. True, the Communists themselves emphatically deny the fact of any agreements with the ruling party. “No matter what they say, the most inveterate United Russia members are put up against our comrades,” assures Sergei Obukhov, secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. And Smolin explains the actions of the ruling party by the fact that in some districts it simply could not find worthy candidates: “We received data from an independent survey in Omsk, and, judging by the numbers, United Russia, who was planned to be nominated there, is five times less likely than I have".

Finally, in some constituencies, United Russia withdrew itself for the sake of the leaders of non-parliamentary parties. For example, in the Voronezh region, a seat has been vacated for Rodina leader Alexei Zhuravlev, and in Bashkiria for Civic Platform leader Rifat Shaikhutdinov.

Real competition is not ruled out in a couple of dozen more districts, experts say. Thus, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has 40-45 strong single-members, of which about 20 can count on victory, including deputies Vladimir Komoyedov in Sevastopol and Anton Romanov in the Irkutsk region, says Alexander Pozhalov. The Socialist-Revolutionaries, in his opinion, have a chance in Karelia, Altai Territory, Nizhny Novgorod, Sverdlovsk and Volgograd regions, as well as in Astrakhan region, where the deputy of four Duma convocations Oleg Shein is running. Thus, United Russia in total will take about 160 constituencies, which, together with 110-130 mandates on party lists, will be enough for a confident majority, Pozhalov sums up. “United Russia will obviously receive no less than three-quarters of the districts, and if taking into account the non-partisan ones, then four-fifths,” agrees Konstantin Kalachev.