"Prepare the sleigh in summer and the cart in winter." A wise Russian proverb encourages us to worry about the future in advance. That is why we are already asking ourselves today what the winter of 2016-2017 will be like in Russia, what to expect from the next cold season - long frosts, heavy snowfalls, or, conversely, warm and snowless days. Find out what the weather will be like in the winter of 2016-2017, we offer from our article.

Winter 2016-2017: general forecast

In the winter of 2016-2017, meteorologists promise more stable weather than in the 2015-2016 season. According to long-term forecasts, winter promises to be moderately cold throughout Russia, without such sharp differences between day and night temperatures, as was observed last year. According to preliminary forecasts, winter promises to be early this year - the first snowfalls should be expected in early November. In the middle part of Russia, not to mention Siberia and Far East, snow will cover the ground even before the calendar start of winter - the first snowfalls promise to be very plentiful. So by December, most of the country will already be covered with a fluffy white veil.

A mild, not too cold December promises to give way to a frosty January. By mid-February, frosts will intensify, but by the end of the month, the influence of spring will be clearly noticeable in most of the country - by the end of the last winter month, weather forecasters promise a thaw.

Unlike last season, the winter of 2016-2017 promises to be less generous with precipitation. Sunny and fairly "dry" weather should last most of the three winter months. The only exception will be the period from the end of November to the beginning - mid-December, when heavy snowfalls will fall in most of the country.

Weather forecast for December 2016

We will enter December already "prepared" - November promises to be quite cold, and by the end of the month it will also be snowy. Therefore, sharp temperature drops with the onset of the first winter month are not expected.

Based on the annual observation of the weather, weather forecasters made an approximate temperature forecast for December. According to it, the very first day of winter in Moscow and Central Russia will be quite frosty - down to minus 10C during the day and down to minus 15-18C at night. Siberia will please even more frosty beginning of winter - down to minus 18C during the day, and at night the thermometer should drop below 20C cold.

This weather will last the entire first decade of the month. However, by 11-13 it will get a little warmer: the central regions will expect about 8-9C of frost, and Moscow - 5-7C of frost.

From the middle of the month until New Year's Eve, the weather promises to be stable and stable - about minus 14-16C during the day and 17-21C at night. Usual temperature for December, isn't it?

Before the New Year, it will get a little warmer - in the daytime - 9-10C of frost, at night - up to minus 14C. However, the exception to this forecast will be the territories of Siberia - here the eve of the Russians' favorite holiday promises to be much colder - up to minus 25C during the day. Even more frost awaits the northern regions - the thermometer should drop below 30C below zero.

Forecasters promise us moderate rainfall in December. At first winter month only residents of the northern regions should expect heavy precipitation - here meteorologists predict high snowdrifts by the first decade of the month.

Residents of the Central and Southern regions may not be afraid of too much rainfall - the second half of December in these parts promises to be quite sunny and snowless.

January weather forecast

The preliminary weather forecast for early January will please many. Muscovites and guests of the capital will meet the New Year with moderate frost and, possibly, light snow - on January 1-2, 2017, weather forecasters promise about 12C below zero, in some places light snow.

It will be a little warmer in the central regions of the country - up to minus 10C during the day and minus 17C at night. But snow in the first days of the month in these areas can not be expected - although the weather will be cloudy, precipitation is extremely unlikely.

Immediately after the New Year, the temperature will drop slightly - to minus 14C in Moscow and around the capital and minus 17C in the Central regions. But Christmas Eve will bring with it a slight warming - the thermometer on the eve of Christmas should rise by one or two degrees.

At Christmas and in the first days after the end of the long New Year holidays, relatively warm weather will remain - in the daytime from 12C to 15C frost, at night - from 19C to 23C.

The first half of January will bring dry frosty weather to Siberia and northern regions. Heavy snowfalls are not expected in this area.

So, for the New Year holidays, which we, according to the already established long-term tradition, are quite long - in 2017 the holidays are from January 1 to January 9 - we will have a moderate frost without heavy snows and snowstorms. Wonderful weather for a holiday in the country, isn't it?

The second half of January is not so happy. At the end of the first working week, the inhabitants of the central regions will see an increase in frost - by the weekend of January 14-15, weather forecasters promise 20-22C frost. Siberians were less fortunate - here the thermometer drops to minus 25C during the day. Meteorologists warn of a possible increase in wind, which, coupled with snowfalls in some parts of Siberia, could turn into heavy snowstorms. Crossings on the roads, snowdrifts, blizzards - a picture for the Siberian lands and the Far East is familiar.

The end of the month will bring precipitation to the central and southern regions. True, the snowfalls should not be as plentiful as it was last year. A change in the anticyclone will also affect the temperature, significantly increasing general level. Last days January will present 15-16C below zero during the day and 20-21C at night.

February weather forecast

The first decade of February will bring quite warm weather for winter - around 10-11C below zero. Warming will be noticeable not only in the central part of Russia, but also in the southern and western regions, and in some regions of Siberia. Only the northern part of the country will not be affected by a temporary increase in temperature - frosts will still reign here.

At the same time, precipitation is quite likely, in some places the snowfall will drag on for two or three days. However, exceeding the allowable monthly rate you should not expect - despite the duration, the snowfall will not be very plentiful.

The second decade of the month will remind us what a harsh and frosty winter. A sharp cooling is expected in most of the country. Both the central and southern regions will fall under the influence of the “minus”, the cold front will affect both western Siberia and the North-East. The coming cold will bring with it clear, sunny weather. "Frost and sun" - these are the words of the classic that perfectly characterize mid-February.

The last days of the month will bring a sharp warming. The thaw is expected in the period from February 24 to 27 - the thermometer will rise to 3-6C of cold, which, compared to previous frosts, will seem like just the onset of spring. Such warming will also mark the beginning of snowfalls - and here it is already worth waiting for heavy rainfall. Comfortable (for winter) temperatures and snowfall are expected in most of Russia.

Results

Understanding what the winter of 2016-2017 will be like, it is worth remembering that the forecast issued by meteorologists is very approximate. These data are based on long-term observations of the weather and preliminary forecasts, and more accurate expert information will appear much later.

The winter of 2019 promises to be the warmest in the last 10 years. Forecasters talk about the classic winter that has been characteristic of the last decade. Nothing special should be expected from the next three cold months - the weather will be much warmer than usual.

Weather for December 2019 in Moscow

The first month of winter will be the warmest month and will break many temperature records, that is, the average air temperature does not promise to fall below -5 degrees, and in some places it will be up to +3. December will be slushy - the temperature will fluctuate within zero degrees, cold rains are possible. In mid-December, a cold front will come, which will bring with it the first frosts - up to -5 ° С. The main frosts will fall at the end of December, in the first half of the month, Muscovites, a large number they won't see snow. Closer to the New Year, the temperature will stay from -6.. -10, light snowfalls are expected. However, for the most part in December, the temperature will be above the climatic norm, and it is likely that December 18, 19, 22, 2019 could be the warmest days on record for the city.

Before the New Year, a cold snap may come to Moscow. Preliminary calculations of weather forecasters show that in last week December there is a possibility of lower temperatures and snow. But it is not accurate forecast, but "only a possibility", because modern technologies allow specialists to predict temperature with high accuracy only for five days, precipitation - two or three days ahead.

Weather on December 31, 2019 in Moscow

Although the probability of synoptic errors regarding long-term forecasts tends to be 50-60%, meteorologists can now tentatively say what the weather will be like on December 31st. In the morning, the temperature will be -1 °С, and during the day it will decrease, reaching a minimum closer to 6 pm. During the day, the indicators will be -7 ° С, and on the night of January 1, a slight increase in temperature is predicted. But you should not be afraid of a thaw - a light frost will last all New Year's Eve, not exceeding a comfortable -2 ° C.

Weather for January 2020 in Moscow

January promises to be the harshest month of winter 2019. Although at first it doesn't seem like it. It will snow in the first half, and the temperature during the daytime will be -10/-15 degrees. But in the second half of the month, really severe frosts are expected, the precipitation will stop, and the temperature will begin to drop sharply. So as February approaches, temperatures will drop to -30/-35 degrees. At the very end of the month, significant warming is expected, which will be accompanied by snowfalls.

Will there be snow for the new year 2019-2020?

It is very early to predict, but in the last 4 years there was snow on New Year's Eve in Moscow, and it is possible in 2019.

Weather for February 2020 in Moscow and the Moscow region

The snowfall, which began in January, will continue in early February and will bring warming with it. In the first half of the month, it will be quite warm by the standards of winter, namely -5 +0. As frost approaches, the thermometers will noticeably creep down. After February 20, real frosts will hit -30 degrees.

The forecast is based on statistics for the last 13 years. Prediction accuracy 31%.

Text /

Preview photo / Daniil Silantev / unsplash.com

The weather is one of the most popular topics of conversation in any society, because it is always interesting what tomorrow will bring us, what to wear and whether to take an umbrella with you. Nevertheless, it is much more interesting to know what the winter of 2018 will be like in Russia, will it bring a lot of snow, will it be frosty or in conditions global warming expect warm days and minimal rainfall.

Of course, even modern weather stations will not be able to predict with absolute accuracy what the coming winter will be like. However, based on the statistics of past years and taking into account climate change, some meteorologists are already coming up with stories about what to expect in December-February. To judge what will be the period from the end of autumn to the beginning of spring, the inhabitants are also taken, relying on folk signs.

In general, experts say that the upcoming cold season of the year will not bring any surprises, the weather will be quite familiar and predictable. Despite this, it is necessary to prepare for it in advance, since the first frosts and snowfalls in the Central part of Russia are expected already in mid-November. IN northern latitudes, of course, even earlier - at the end of September-October.

December 2017

Cold season starts comfortable temperatures. In the Central part of Russia, the thermometer in the daytime will show -5 ... -9 degrees. Approximately the same values ​​can be seen at the end of the month. In the northern regions of the country, temperatures will be lower, so frosts of up to -30 degrees are possible in some places. In the south, on the contrary, in December the thermometer is unlikely to drop below -6 degrees at night. Warming will come in mid-December.

In Moscow, the minimum temperature is expected after the Catholic Christmas. In the daytime it will be up to -8, at night - up to -14. In the northern capital, the picture is similar. As for the quantity precipitation, then exceeding the limits of the norm is not expected.

About the weather for the New Year

In addition, many are concerned about another question: what will the weather be like on New Year's Eve, because the celebration program, costumes and, often, mood depend on this. This year, nature promises to make a gift - snow will pass in most regions of the Russian Federation. In the Central part of Russia, the thermometer will not fall below -10 degrees. In the southern regions is expected to -5. Well, the northerners will have to freeze, because temperature regime will be within -20 ... -25 degrees.

In Moscow, on December 31 and January 1, it is worth waiting for -3 during the day and up to -7 degrees at night. It will be slightly colder in St. Petersburg, but in general the temperature will be quite comfortable. Well, in the following holidays, a slight decrease is possible.

Stepping outside at midnight on December 31st, take a look at the sky. If it is strewn with stars, then this is for a rich harvest in the summer.

January 2018

You can safely plan walks and outdoor recreation, since weather forecasters are sure that in the first ten days of the month the average daily temperature will not be lower than -8 degrees (the central part of the Russian Federation). Residents of the southern regions will be even more lucky, it is expected to reach zero there. Well, the northerners, accustomed to frost, will not be able to change thick fur coats for thin down jackets, because it will be up to -30 there.

By mid-January, Russians will feel real Epiphany frosts, even in the central region, thermometers will show up to -25 during the day. At the same time, snowfalls will take place in most of Russia.

By the end of the month, many may think that the winter is losing ground, as a short thaw will come. However, be vigilant, heat will bring with it the activation of viral and infectious diseases.

February 2018

Many look forward to February as they hope it will be warmer and less snowy than December and January. However, exactly last month The cold season is considered one of the fiercest months, and in 2018 it will be the same. Sudden temperature changes, heavy rainfall, gusty winds are expected.

At the beginning of the month, residents of the central part of Russia will have to deal with frosts up to 30 degrees. Northerners are waiting for lower temperatures. By the middle of the month, warming is planned - up to -10 (in the central region), and in the south, even up to +10. Well, the end of the month will bring with it really spring weather. In the north it is warm - up to -5, in the central part - up to +3, and in the south - up to +15 degrees. The amount of precipitation in some areas will exceed the norm.

In Moscow and the northern capital, the weather will be familiar for this time.

Folk omens

Today, the forecast is based on the results of measurements of various meteorological equipment. But one cannot ignore the folk signs, with the help of which for hundreds of years they have been determining what December-February will turn out to be.

Of course, the modern climate is different from the one in which our grandmothers and great-grandmothers lived, however, some signs do not lose their relevance:

• Watch the weather in September. It is believed that the warm and dry first month of autumn promises a late arrival of the frost season.
• If in June-August it often rained, and in September-November, on the contrary, it was warm and dry, then the cold will come late, but spring will not rush too much.
• When you see a rowan tree, estimate the number of fruits. So, a rich harvest promises a frosty and long winter.
• It is possible to predict what the period from late autumn to early spring will be like from the autumn harvest. Thin and tender peel on vegetables (carrots, potatoes, onions) promises warm December, January and February. But if the peel is thick and rough, then prepare fur coats and warm shoes, as the winter will be cold and long. By the way, this is also indicated by the rich harvest of mushrooms, and the abundance of acorns in the fall.
• Have you seen a titmouse? Get ready for the cold. These birds are true harbingers of frosty days.
• Detect mosquitoes in late autumn - to frost.

• Remember the date when the first snow fell. It is believed that the real winter will come exactly in 40 days. Moreover, if the trees did not have time to throw off all the foliage, but were already covered with snow, it will be fierce.
• Late leaf fall is a harbinger of a harsh and long winter.
• December 1 is the Day of Plato and Roman, what will this day be like, wait for such a winter.
• If it snowed on December 12, then snowfalls will not stop for a week.

Some meteorologists believe that it is not worth predicting the weather from signs, since any kind of superstition is nothing more than a reason to laugh.

Some interesting winter facts

• Oymyakon is rightfully considered the coldest Russian city. The minimum temperature that was recorded here is -71.2. It happened in 1938. On this occasion, even a monument was erected. On average, in the cold season, the thermometer shows -55, and the average annual temperature does not rise above -15.5.
• record in the capital low temperature was recorded in 1940. The temperature dropped to minus 42. Severe frosts lasted almost three months. Serious damage has been done agriculture(trees froze), and pipes burst in Moscow apartments. Many businesses were shut down as city residents got frostbite while commuting to work or home.
• Muscovites also remember the winter of 2011, with its freezing rain. The elements raged for two days, and then the sub-zero temperature (about -25) led to icing and the subsequent collapse of trees and power lines.
• The most warm winter in Moscow, according to Rosgidromedtsentr, was in 2015. At that time, in the North-West of the country, Siberia and the Far East, the average temperature was -4-7 degrees, which was a record for the Russian Federation. And on the Black Sea coast in February, the mercury column approached +20.
• The diameter of the largest snowflake in Russia, which was not only seen, but also measured, was 12 centimeters. It happened on April 30, 1944 in Moscow. But the absolute record holder is still a snowflake, discovered more than 130 years ago (01/28/1887) in the USA. Its diameter is 38 cm and its thickness is 20 cm.

• More than 50% of the world's population (approximately 4 billion) have never (!) seen real snow.
• Once it snowed even in the Sahara. You could see this event on February 18, 1979.
• In 1911, the frosts in the United States were so severe that even Niagara Falls could not resist and froze over.
• The warmest winter, of course, is at the equator, but Australia (in the southern part) and some African countries (in the northern part of the globe) are not much behind.
• Kyonophobia is the name given to the fear of snow and cold.

Of course, each of us can try to predict what the coming winter will be like. Nevertheless, we want to remind you that neither modern equipment, nor long-term observations of the climate, and even more so, folk signs and superstitions are not able to accurately tell what the weather will be like. You can find out only on the eve of the calendar onset of the cold season. We can only hope that he will be generous for warmer days!

Video: how to determine the weather in winter by folk omens

Many Russian proverbs advise people to think about the future in advance and prepare for it. That is why weather forecasts are carefully studied by most of the population. This is especially true during inclement seasons such as winter. It is important for us to know what the cold season will bring - heavy snowfalls, long frosts or snowless days.

Forecasts for the winter of 2016-2017 are still preliminary, but they make it clear what we will expect in the upcoming season. It is they who will help to decide whether it is worth buying a warm fur coat or a light down jacket will be enough, whether it is necessary to insulate the roots of trees in advance or you can do without this procedure.

General weather forecast for winter 2016-2017

According to meteorologists, the 2016-2017 season will be more stable than last year. Long term forecasts say that winter period it will be cold in all parts of our country, there will be practically no significant temperature drops, which was typical of last year.

• Preliminary forecasts say that winter is expected early - from the very first days of November, the first snowfalls are expected. In the middle part, especially on the distant approaches of the country, snow will cover the soil before the start of winter - heavy snowfalls will come. As a result, the main part Russian Federation covered with a white blanket.
• The not very cold first month predicts to pass into January, which will bring frosts. By the middle of the month frosts will intensify, but in the main part of the Russian Federation, by the end of February, the influence of spring will be clearly visible - a thaw is predicted.
• Winter 2017 is not expected to be very rich in precipitation. Very "dry" weather and sunny days will have to last the bulk of the winter. An exception may be the period from the end of November to the middle of December, when snowfalls can come to many parts of the Russian Federation.

December weather forecast 2016-2017

1. With the advent of December, there will be no significant changes in temperature, because the end of November promises snow and very cold days. So in the center of Russia, the first days will be very frosty - at night minus 16-19C and in the daytime up to minus 11C. In Siberia, frosts will be even stronger - in the daytime up to minus 18C, and at night below 21C cold. Similar weather will be all the first days of the month.
2. By the 12th-14th it will become a little warmer: 9-10C frost in the central regions. Until the main holidays, the weather is predicted to be stable - minus 18-22C at night and 15-17C during the day.
3. Before the main holiday of the year, it will get a little warmer - at night - minus 15C and in the daytime - 10-11C frost. At the same time, in Siberia it will be up to minus 26C in the daytime. December is predicted to be moderate in terms of precipitation.

January weather forecast 2016-2017

1. In the capital, the holidays will be held under moderate frost. In the central regions, the temperature will be minus 18C at night and up to minus 11C during the day. Precipitation in the first days of the month will be extremely unlikely. A slight warming of about a few degrees is predicted for Christmas. In the northern regions, the first half of the month of January will be dry and frosty. No major snowfalls are planned.
2. At the end of the initial week, the central regions will see an increase in frost - January 15-16 will be up to 21-23C frost. In Siberia, the temperature during the day can drop to minus 26C. In some places in the Siberian region, strong snowstorms are possible.
3. Precipitation at the end of the first month of winter 2017 is also expected in the southern and central regions. The last days of the month of January promise 21-22C below zero at night and 16-17C during the day.

February weather forecast 2016-2017

1. In the first ten days of February, it is expected to be around 11-12C below zero. The arrival of heat will be noticeable almost everywhere. Only in the northern part of the country such a variant of events is excluded. At the same time, precipitation is also possible.
2. The second decade can bring a sharp cooling almost everywhere. The upcoming cold weather promises clear weather.
3. At the end of winter 2017, the arrival of heat is planned. A thaw to 3-5C cold and the arrival of heavy rainfall are expected.

Weather forecast in Moscow for the winter of 2016-2017 according to popular beliefs.

The forecast on this page is an attempt to reconstruct (and test) the ancient method of forecasting the weather for the whole year. This method is mostly based on the assumption that the weather in the next 12 days after the day of St. Spyridon shows what the weather will be like in the twelve months corresponding to them.
When compiling the forecast, weather data of two more days are used, on which in the old days the weather for the winter period was noted - these are Anna Zimoukaznitsa (August 7) ​​and Pokrov Holy Mother of God(October 14). According to the signs of these days, they also made a descriptive long-term forecast for the whole winter. Oddly enough, the signs of weather indicators for Anna and Pokrov are consistent - they complement each other, but with the signs after the day of Spiridon, they do not always agree ...
Based on the results of the analysis of weather data from past winters, corrections are still being made for "calendar" frosts: Christmas, Epiphany, etc.

The weather forecast for the whole winter 2016-2017 will be made after October 14(Pokrov), the fact is that signs on Pokrov complement the signs on Anna Winter Pointer (August 7). Bye preliminary it turns out that this winter will be cold at first and probably early.

Cover - Weather signs for Pokrov Den, together with signs for Anna Zimoukaznitsa (7.08), show the general nature of the coming winter in 2016-2017.

Weather forecast for Winter 2016-2017, Moscow

DATA:

08/07/2016 Anna Summer (Winter guide)- On this day, the first "weather" signs of the upcoming winter are determined: "Bright and warm weather portends a cold winter, and if it rains, the winter is snowy and warm" ... In Moscow on August 7, it was cloudless in the early morning, but the haze, though quite warm : 18°C, with sunrise the haze dispersed, by noon clouds appeared, during the day the clouds became denser and in the evening it all ended with a shower. The day turned out to be the hottest day this summer - temperature maximum: 33.6°C

Weather data Moscow(VVC) - Anna Zimoukaznitsa
Date and time (local)	Character weather	T (° c)	Rel. humidity (%)	Atm. pressure (mm)	Wind (m/s)		Siege- ki(mm)
21:00 08/07/2016	heavy rain shower	20	96	746	SW	1	12.0 mm in 12 hours
18:00 08/07/2016	partly cloudy	31	34	745	YU	1	-
15:00 08/07/2016	partly cloudy	33	30	746	YU	1	-
12:00 08/07/2016	partly cloudy	32	42	748	SE	1	-
9:00 08/07/2016	It's clear	28	56	750	YU	1	0
6:00 08/07/2016	clear, hazy	18	96	750	calm	0	0
3:00 08/07/2016	clear, hazy	17	91	750	calm	0	-
0:00 08/07/2016	It's clear	19	80	751	calm	0	-

Such weather on Anna portends a moderately cold and snowy December at first, which will end with frosts on New Year's Eve, January, it turns out, will also be cold, with frosts, and thaws will begin only in the second half of February and will be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

10/14/2016 Pokrov- On this day, the forecast is updated based on the signs of Anna Winter Pointer, and only according to the wind direction: "If the wind blows from the north or east, the winter will be cold and snowy; if from the south - the winter is warm, from the west - snowy."

15.10.2016 In Moscow on October 14, a weak wind blew from early morning. North wind(to cold weather), only in the afternoon a weak northwest breeze blew for a short time (to mild weather with precipitation), which then changed again to the north (to frost, cold):

Weather data Moscow, to the forecast "Winter 2017"- Veil
Date and time (local)	Character weather	T (° c)	Rel. humidity (%)	Atm. pressure (mm)	Wind (m/s)		Siege- ki(mm)
21:00 October 14, 2016	Mainly cloudy	4	74	758	WITH	2	0.0 mm in 12 hours
18:00 October 14, 2016	Mainly cloudy	5	74	757	WITH	2
15:00 October 14, 2016	Mainly cloudy	5	75	757	NW	2
12:00 October 14, 2016	cloudy with gaps, haze	4	80	757	WITH	2
9:00 October 14, 2016	light drizzle	3	90	756	WITH	2	0.0 mm in 12 hours
6:00 October 14, 2016	cloudy, hazy	2	89	756	WITH	2
3:00 October 14, 2016	Mainly cloudy	2	86	756	WITH	2
0:00 October 14, 2016	Mainly cloudy	2	87	756	WITH	2

Preliminary weather forecast for the winter of 2016-2017
(compiled on 08/15/16)

What will New Year's Eve be like in Moscow?
(compiled on 08/15/16)

On that New Year it is possible with a probability of 70-75% to predict what New Year's Eve will be in Moscow. If you look at the forecast charts for the end of December and the beginning of January 2016, you can see that the nature of the weather in the next three days before the New Year and after it practically does not change. The very likely Nikolsky frosts will begin to weaken by the New Year, but it will still be quite cold: on New Year's Eve the temperature will range from -8 to -14 ° C, partly cloudy or cloudless, light wind or calm. For those who are going to celebrate the New Year outside the city, it will probably be important to know that New Year's Eve will be dark and moonless (December 29, 2016 - new moon).

Forecast for 2017.

Weather forecast for January 2017, Moscow

15.08.16 In the first ten days of January 2017, the air temperature will be slightly warmer than the norm - after the New Year's cold weather, the state of "mild winter, mostly cloudy with clearings, clear weather is possible, so on the eve of the Old New Year in Moscow (Vasilyevsky evening) there will be a "classic New Year's Eve", but by Epiphany, the temperature will traditionally begin to fall, and at the end of January, severe frosts down to -30 ° C are possible.

The presented schedule is based on weather data from January 06, 2016 according to folk signs that determine the weather at the beginning of January 2017.

Chart 01.2017.Msk Forecasted average daily temperature and probability diagram of cloudiness forecast in January 2017, Moscow

According to popular signs for the weather forecast for 2017, it turns out that there will be no more long-term severe frosts this winter.

COMMENT: You should not expect that the actual average daily temperature will exactly repeat the predicted one, if this were the case, then all the meteorological services would be disbanded as unnecessary, and instead of the weather forecast, we would watch an exciting competition, so to speak, "weather forecasting magicians" in struggle for the position of the Court Magician (progress lies in the fact that such a competition takes place on the political field:).
However, if the predicted weather occurs within ±3 days, then the forecast should be considered justified - this is set to this moment the uncertainty interval of such a forecast...

Weather forecast for February 2017, Moscow

15.08.16. Preliminary: February at the beginning is frosty, with little snow, in the second half it will be unstable with fluctuations from thaw to frost, at this time all the lack of snow will be compensated, or at least the precipitation that is missing up to the norm. A more detailed forecast will be presented after processing the observational data according to the signs of Spiridonov Day.

The weather forecast for January and February is always updated: the first time - after Veil of the Day, the second - after new weather data received from December 26, 2016 to January 6, 2017 are processed.

25.01.2017. Paradoxically, but true! The signs of Spiridon's day fully confirm the preliminary forecast. Only in early February it will not be so frosty, and instead of snow at the end of the month it may rain, but, most likely, nature (or winter?) will still add snow ...

Chart 02.2017.Msk Forecasted average daily temperature and probability diagram for the forecast of cloudiness in February 2017, Moscow

Further weather forecast for 2017 is presented on the page:

Explanations for charts:

Long-term average - the average daily temperature obtained as a result of averaging 30 years of observations (1961-1990).

Average daily forecast T ° C - average daily temperature data obtained as a result of recalculating the actual temperatures measured on the day that shows the weather of a given month (for July - this is 01/01/2012, the nature of the temperature change on this day is just used to make a weather forecast).

Actual average daily, Tmin°C, Tmax°C - respectively, average daily, minimum and maximum temperature, formed in fact on the given day according to the indications of the Hydrometeorological Center.

Overcast, partly cloudy, clear - a diagram showing the probability of cloudy conditions in a given decade of the month, in proportion to the area of ​​the corresponding areas.

The actual weather icons (at the very top) indicate the prevailing weather for that day. For example, if for 14 hours it was overcast and raining, then in the next 3-4 hours the clouds dissipated and the weather was clear for the remaining hours of the day, then the cloudy weather with precipitation icon will be displayed. If different states of cloudiness are distributed in equal proportions in a day, then preference will be given to daytime weather.

Arrows - indicate the prevailing wind direction, if the wind is variable, then the arrows indicate the sectors within which the wind direction changed.

White line with snowflakes - snow depth (1 division of the vertical scale corresponds to snow height - 20 cm)

The rules used in making a weather forecast:

1. To compile a weather forecast, actual weather data from December 26 to January 6 inclusive is used, the marking of months is carried out according to the old style ( Julian calendar).
2. When compiling a weather forecast for a month, the data are interpreted as follows: morning from 10.00 to 13.00 (involving data for 7.00 at information plan) - correspond to the 1st decade of the month according to the old style (according to the modern calendar from the 14th to the 23rd day of the corresponding month); day from 13.00 to 16.00 - 2nd decade; evening from 16.00 to 19.00 (involving data at 22.00 in terms of information) - 3rd decade of the month according to the old style.

Temperature: We use the actual temperature data and their deviation from the average daily temperature of the climatic norm. Until the day spring equinox we directly use the initial data of temperatures and deviations, after the day of the vernal equinox - inverted data (change "+" to "-" and vice versa, according to the principle "than colder in winter the warmer in summer"). In addition, we make adjustments to the nature of temperature changes for phenomena that are consistently repeated in terms of signs: For example: Epiphany frosts - we make an adjustment by underestimating the initial data by 2-5 °C.

Cloud nature: The biggest difficulty is the interpretation of the nature of cloudiness - after all, if the weather is cloudy all day, then for the corresponding month it cannot be cloudy all the time. In winter, in this case, predominantly cloudy weather is predicted, and for the summer period, the cloudiness character points are underestimated, i.e. after the day of the vernal equinox, if on the initial day it is cloudy, without rain, then we predict: "mostly partly cloudy".

Precipitation: with precipitation, everything is simple; there is precipitation - it means there will be in the corresponding forecast period, no - it means mostly without precipitation or slight precipitation, depending on the predicted nature of the cloudiness.

Wind speed: if during the initial day there are deviations in wind speed by 3-5 m/s, then there will be windy weather in the corresponding period.